Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST)
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$100.06+1.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.61 → 1.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CWST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete remarketing of $15 million revenue bonds | A supporting condition in Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $15 million remarketed. | Improving | Remarketing of revenue bonds not completed by mid 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-through-acquisitions and pricing story, not a proven earnings compounder, since the evidence classifies earnings quality as loss-making. The thesis is in a watch state: recent execution has been mixed, despite a guidance increase and completed acquisition.
CWST is rated expensive, with a 2.5-point premium versus peers, and the model sees an expectations gap of 0.26; confidence in that estimate is low. Valuation rose recently, while the priced-in assessment is tagged unjustified, though no specific fragility gates were triggered.
Near term, revenue growth has been supported by acquisitions and pricing, and management raised 2026 revenue guidance after reporting higher second-quarter revenue year over year. The miss-risk estimate is 27%, but the evidence also flags recent peer misses and a deep miss in CWST’s history; elevated sector headwinds remain relevant to the multi-year view.
The main company-specific test is whether CWST sustains delivery against its raised guidance; a reversal and guidance cut would also damage management credibility. Sector bellwethers’ results and guidance are another swing factor, while execution on equipment financing and acquisition integration will shape the longer-term growth story.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CWST’s thesis depends on turning acquisition- and pricing-led revenue growth into stronger financial performance without a guidance reversal. The expensive valuation and sector headwinds make execution the central issue. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company appointed a new COO to boost efficiency and growth. |
| Improving |
| COO departure or failure to improve operations by end 2026 |
Qualitative: New COO hired (Jul 2026), Q2 beat, no trip trigger COO transition to external hire in July 2026; Q2 2026 results beat expectations; acquisition activity ongoing. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain operating income improvement near $4.9 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income improved 54.5% from 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q1. | Intact | Operating income falls below $3.1 million in Q1 FY26 | Operating income: $19.964M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.9M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202619,964,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $2.07 billion in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.07B. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $1.83 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $543.748M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.07B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026543,748,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.73 → $1.57 · observed estimates
$2.22B → $2.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.50 | $2,220,920,320 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.50 | $2,220,920,320 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.50 | $2,220,920,320 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.50 | $2,220,920,320 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.50 | $2,220,920,320 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.50 | $2,220,920,320 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.50 | $2,220,920,320 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.50 | $2,220,920,320 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.47 | $2,247,553,310 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.73 | $2,220,931,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.61 | $2,251,724,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.61 | $2,252,214,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.61 | $2,252,214,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.61 | $2,254,183,260 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.61 | $2,254,183,260 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.61 | $2,254,183,260 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.61 | $2,254,183,260 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.61 | $2,254,183,260 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.61 | $2,254,183,260 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.61 | $2,256,922,657 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.61 | $2,256,922,657 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.58 | $2,259,078,173 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.58 | $2,259,078,173 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.58 | $2,259,078,173 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.58 | $2,259,078,173 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.58 | $2,259,078,173 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.58 | $2,259,030,673 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.58 | $2,259,030,673 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.58 | $2,259,030,673 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.58 | $2,259,030,673 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.58 | $2,259,030,673 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.58 | $2,259,030,673 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.58 | $2,259,080,673 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.57 | $2,256,386,591 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.