Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST)
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$100.06+1.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CWST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
CWST — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-11
Other Events. On May 11, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it has commenced the remarketing of $15.0 million aggregate principal amount of New York State Environmental Facilities Corporation (the “Issuer”) Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds (Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Project) Series 2014R-2 (collectively, the “Bonds”). The Bonds were issued pursuant to an Indenture dated as of December 1, 2014 (the “Indenture”) and drawn down on June 2, 2016. The Bonds have a…
Why it matters: Casella finished systems work in the Mid-Atlantic and began route changes. Q3 results can show whether those steps help the business run better.
Supportive ifCasella reports route gains or lower costs from Mid-Atlantic changes. Q3 adjusted EBITDA growth tops Q2's 12.5%.
Worry ifCasella reports delays or no route gains, and Q3 adjusted EBITDA growth is 12.5% or lower.
Why it matters: Higher landfill volumes and disposal prices helped drive Q2 growth. A fall in either could weaken core results.
Worry ifQ3 landfill volumes fall year over year, or disposal price growth drops below Q2's 4.7%.
Less concerning ifQ3 landfill volumes rise year over year and disposal price growth stays at or above 4.7%.
Why it matters: Casella kept its EBITDA range at $473 million to $483 million. Q3 results will show if growth and cost control remain on track.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA growth slows, or Casella cuts its $473 million to $483 million 2026 range.
Less concerning ifCasella keeps the range and reports year-to-date results that leave it on pace to reach at least $473 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $309 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,016 loss on $10,000 · 30.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.