Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST)
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$93.53-2.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CWST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 73.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
CWST — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-11
Other Events. On May 11, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it has commenced the remarketing of $15.0 million aggregate principal amount of New York State Environmental Facilities Corporation (the “Issuer”) Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds (Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Project) Series 2014R-2 (collectively, the “Bonds”). The Bonds were issued pursuant to an Indenture dated as of December 1, 2014 (the “Indenture”) and drawn down on June 2, 2016. The Bonds have a…
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control and more profit.
Supportive ifOperating income is up more than 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income falls or grows by less than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Net income below this level may show possible profit problems.
Worry ifNet income reported above $0 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income reported below $0 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in guidance shows confidence in growth from acquisitions and pricing strength.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance raised to between $2.09 billion and $2.11 billion for 2026.
Worry ifGuidance remains unchanged or is lowered from the current range.
Why it matters: This agreement shows how Casella funds its equipment and keeps costs in check.
Watch forDetails on the financial effects from the Master Lease Agreement are shared.
Also watch forNo updates or bad news from the Master Lease Agreement are reported.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $317 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,016 loss on $10,000 · 30.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher net income means better profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet income reported for Q3 exceeds $6 million.
Worry ifNet income reported for Q3 is below $0.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control and pricing power. This means the company is working better.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $20 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $18 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If pricing growth is below this level, it may show margin challenges.
Worry ifSolid waste pricing growth reported below 5.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifSolid waste pricing growth meets or exceeds 5.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals effective pricing and successful acquisitions. It shows the company is on track with its growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 16.9% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost management. This is important for future profits.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 is over $4.86M, showing growth.
Worry ifOperating income falls or stays under $4.86M.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows strong growth potential. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue for 2026 will be more than current estimates.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers the revenue guidance for 2026.