Citizens & Northern Corp. (CZNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$28.25-1.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CZNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CZNC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Citizens & Northern Corporation (the “Company”) announced unaudited, consolidated financial results for the three and nine month periods ended September 30, 2026. On October 22, 2026, the Company issued a press release titled “C&N Announces Record Quarterly Earnings and Declares Increase in Dividend,” a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Q3 earnings included a credit for loan losses. Higher core earnings would show progress beyond that benefit.
Supportive ifNext-quarter PPNR tops Q3's $17.464 million, while the bank records no credit for loan losses.
Worry ifPPNR falls below $17.464 million, or reported net income relies on another credit for loan losses.
Why it matters: A $10.1 million charge-off hit results in Q1. The loan remains under a forbearance plan, so more losses could hurt earnings.
Worry ifC&N reports another charge-off or missed forbearance payment. Or the loan's $5.665 million balance rises from June 30, 2026.
Less concerning ifThe borrower keeps making agreed payments, and C&N reports no further charge-off on the loan.
Why it matters: Nonperforming assets fell in Q3, but remain above their 2025 level. A rise could signal that loan workouts are losing ground.
Worry ifNonperforming assets rise above 1.16% of assets, up from the level on September 30, 2026.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets fall below 1.16%, and their total drops below $36.523 million.
Why it matters: C&N raised its quarterly dividend by $0.02. Payment of the declared amount would confirm delivery on that increase.
Supportive ifC&N pays $0.30 per share on November 13, 2026, to holders of record on November 2.
Worry ifC&N delays, cuts, or cancels the declared $0.30 per share payment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $239 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,421 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management aims for profitable loan growth. Total loans fell in both Q2 and Q3, despite strong originations.
Supportive ifQuarter-end total loans rise from $2.331 billion at September 30, 2026, with growth from new lending rather than acquired loans.
Worry ifTotal loans fall again from $2.331 billion, or management reports weak loan growth.