Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Dominion Energy (D)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.64-0.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.81 → 3.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for D yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS growth of 9% or more annually | A primary condition in Dominion Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% annual EPS growth. | Under Pressure | annual EPS growth falls below 9% over the next 5 years | Diluted EPS growth: 12.07% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9% annual EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 202612.068966 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
D is a regulated utility with a long-term earnings-growth thesis, not a fast-growth story. The thesis is in a watch state: confidence is high, but recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and management delivery is mixed.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with the market’s expectations gap small. Pricing is tagged as justified, and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
Near term, recent results are weak overall, although an earnings beat was reported on October 30 and the assessed miss risk is low. Through the third quarter, operating earnings per share were $3.02 against full-year guidance of $3.45 to $3.69; guidance has been reaffirmed, but full-year delivery is not established. The proposed NextEra Energy combination and expanded Virginia package remain unproven because the supplied evidence does not establish progress on approvals or closing.
The multi-year view hinges on D delivering its earnings guidance and making progress on the proposed combination. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the utility backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, D’s thesis combines a low-risk utility profile and peer-relative valuation with weak recent performance and important execution questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Dominion Energy's published investment case. The stated target is Merger approved on schedule without major delays. |
| Under Pressure |
| Regulatory delays or blocks delay merger benefits beyond 12 months |
Merger close targeted for H2 2027 vs 12-month target Dominion outlines H2 2027 close; VA Lt. Gov opposes deal; litigation filed; safeguards agreed. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 6% per year | A supporting condition in Dominion Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.82 → $3.82 · observed estimates
$19.10B → $19.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.82 | $19,100,350,410 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.82 | $19,199,081,180 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.82 | $19,199,081,180 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.82 | $19,486,298,390 | 19 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.82 | $19,486,298,390 | 19 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.82 | $19,371,960,680 | 19 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.82 | $19,371,960,680 | 19 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.82 | $19,386,681,930 | 19 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.82 | $19,386,696,930 | 19 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.82 | $19,386,696,930 | 19 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.82 | $19,386,696,930 | 19 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.82 | $19,414,955,810 | 19 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.81 | $19,357,405,043 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.81 | $19,385,811,531 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.81 | $19,385,811,531 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.81 | $19,385,811,531 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.81 | $19,385,811,531 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.81 | $19,385,811,531 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.81 | $19,383,163,384 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.81 | $19,383,163,384 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.81 | $19,383,163,384 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.81 | $19,383,163,384 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.81 | $19,486,679,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.81 | $19,529,463,810 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.81 | $19,529,463,810 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.81 | $19,529,463,810 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.81 | $19,529,463,810 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.81 | $19,529,463,810 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.81 | $19,585,058,009 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.81 | $19,585,330,736 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.81 | $19,585,330,736 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.81 | $19,585,330,736 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.81 | $19,583,203,464 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.81 | $19,583,203,464 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.81 | $19,588,903,282 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.81 | $19,588,903,282 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.81 | $19,588,903,282 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.81 | $19,588,903,282 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.81 | $19,588,903,282 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.81 | $19,587,994,445 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.81 | $19,649,358,082 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.81 | $19,649,358,082 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.81 | $19,823,093,890 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.81 | $19,823,093,890 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.81 | $19,823,093,890 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.81 | $19,823,093,890 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.81 | $19,648,994,445 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.81 | $19,648,994,445 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.81 | $19,648,994,445 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.81 | $19,648,994,445 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.81 | $19,648,994,445 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.81 | $19,649,539,900 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.82 | $19,653,905,100 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.82 | $19,653,905,100 | 11 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.