Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-11-02 · fmp
$27.21 → $27.21 · observed estimates
Deere & Company (DE)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$663.31-1.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful CFO transition to Brent Norwood | A supporting condition in Deere & Company's published investment case. The stated target is CFO transition completed with stable financial leadership. | Intact | CFO transition causes financial leadership disruption | CFO transition completed 2026-05-01 vs FY26 target Norwood promoted to CFO May 2026. Q2/Q3 FY26 earnings beats. No disruption signals. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-11-02 · fmp
$27.21 → $27.21 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 25, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DE is a cyclical industrial business, meaning results can move with the equipment market. Its long-term thesis is intact, with company momentum improving, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution is mixed in some areas.
DE is expensive versus peers, with a 1.6 premium in the snapshot, and the model has low confidence. The expectations gap is 0.47, while the priced-in assessment flags elevated fragility from valuation and execution quality.
Near term, management has raised fiscal 2026 net income guidance, and actual net income for the first nine months was $3.808 billion. Recent earnings beats and improved company momentum support the business picture, while the broader sector remains a headwind and inventory-control progress is not well quantified.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, despite the current quiet near-term risk assessment. Over the coming quarters, the sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from CAT, CNH, and OSK could support industry momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the 1-to-3-year view, the thesis is intact but rests on management sustaining improved earnings guidance as the equipment cycle and sector backdrop remain uncertain. Expensive valuation and fragile earnings quality leave limited room for execution setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins stay healthy with net income guidance raised to $4.5 billion. |
| Intact |
| net income guidance falls below $4.5 billion |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable profit margins near recent levels | Profit margins stay healthy with net income guidance raised to $4.5 billion. | Improving | profit margins decline significantly below recent levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above consensus | A primary condition in Deere & Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= -1.7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below -1.7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$48.61B → $48.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | $27.21 | $48,608,090,413 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $27.21 | $48,608,090,413 | 14 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.