Deere & Company (DE)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$693.53-0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DE — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-15
Other Events. On July 10, 2026, Deere Funding Canada Corporation (the “Issuer”) agreed to sell $300,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.850% Notes due July 15, 2031 (the “Notes”). The Issuer is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Deere & Company (the “Guarantor”). The Notes will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed (the “Guarantee” and, together with the Notes, the “Securities”) on a senior unsecured basis by the Guarantor. The Guarantee will be the Guarantor’s senior unsecured obl…
Why it matters: An increase in net income guidance would show strong financial health and growth potential.
Supportive ifManagement raises net income for the next fiscal year.
Worry ifManagement lowers or keeps net income the same without change.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth in Q3 would indicate continued demand and market share gains. This supports a positive outlook.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth above 8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates from the new CFO could provide insights into financial strategies and future growth plans.
Watch forCFO Norwood shares new financial plans that match growth goals.
Also watch forCFO Norwood does not share any important updates or plans.
Why it matters: The new CFO's approach can affect financial transparency and strategy. This may influence investor trust.
Watch forThe new CFO presents a clear financial strategy that reassures investors in the next earnings call.
Also watch forThe new CFO's strategy raises concerns or confusion among investors in the next earnings call.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $247 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,990 loss on $10,000 · 19.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A rebound in sector revenue growth could signal improved demand for Deere's products.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching above 6%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down, staying below 6%.
Why it matters: The new CFO's approach could influence capital allocation and financial performance. It may signal a shift in strategy or priorities.
Watch forFinancial performance is improving after the CFO change.
Also watch forThere is no clear sign of better financial performance after the CFO change.
Why it matters: A big drop would show ongoing problems in the agricultural sector.
Worry ifQ3 sales in Production & Precision Agriculture drop more than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSales in Production & Precision Agriculture stay flat or go up each year.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how the company is doing and what the market is like.
Watch forEarnings are better than expected. This shows strong operations.
Also watch forEarnings are worse than expected. This suggests problems with operations or demand.
Why it matters: Exceeding this guidance would confirm management's view of 2026 as the bottom of the ag cycle.
Supportive ifNet income guidance for Q4 exceeds $5 billion.
Worry ifNet income guidance remains below $4.75 billion.
Why it matters: Sustained growth in this segment supports overall revenue and reflects market strength.
Supportive ifSmall Ag & Turf sales growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifSmall Ag & Turf sales growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this area shows demand is coming back. It also shows the company is doing well.
Supportive ifConstruction & Forestry sales growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Worry ifConstruction & Forestry sales growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: More money spent on R&D shows a focus on new ideas. This is important for future growth.
Supportive ifR&D expenses increase by more than 10% compared to Q3.
Worry ifR&D expenses decrease or remain flat compared to Q3.