Deere & Company (DE)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$693.53-0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DE
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $694 DE trades at 39× p/e — 1.6× the 24× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $470 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts target $570–$813. Note: our $470 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($570–$813). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $804 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $729.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $183.29 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $936.12 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $108.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$570.00 – $813.00 (median $729.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-09-02
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 134% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $15.02/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $204.66 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $621.95 | 15.4 | 53.99 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $307.39 | 22.1 | 13.92 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $434.39 | 20.0 | 21.75 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $285.92 | 1.6 | 175.86 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $618.69 | 34.4 | 18.00 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $138.48 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $446.35 | 24.0 | 18.64 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $467.51 | 22.1 | 21.17 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $618.28 | 22.1 | 28.00 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |