DECK
Deckers BrandsNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFootwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, DECK has a composite score of 23.2 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.2 and elevated market risk at 71.1. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor conditions.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.87
- Slope (norm)0.76
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.93 → $0.93 (-0.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 14 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.9% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-31 | $3.65 – $3.75 | $0.45 | miss |
| 2018-03-31 | $0.15 – $0.20 | $0.50 | beat |
| 2018-06-30 | $-1.50 – $-1.41 | $-0.17 | beat |
| 2018-12-31 | $5.10 – $5.25 | $1.10 | miss |
| 2019-09-30 | $2.15 – $2.25 | $0.45 | miss |
| 2019-12-31 | $6.30 – $6.40 | $1.19 | miss |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.62 – $0.67 | $0.93 | beat |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.50 – $1.55 | $1.82 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 51%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −39%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 16/100, drawdown 23/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 33% of the last 6 guided quarters · -6.7% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DECK Deckers Brands | +23 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-01-29)-16 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regard…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.