Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Deckers Brands (DECK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$87.74-1.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.32 → 8.10 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DECK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross margin at approximately 57% | A primary condition in Deckers Brands's published investment case. The stated target is ~57% gross margin. | Broken | gross margin falls below 54% (mid-cycle floor) | Gross margin: 60.46% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~57% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 202660.45791 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a branded consumer business with growth supported by HOKA and UGG, but recent growth has moderated. The long-term thesis is under watch: management is stable and recent momentum improved, while company quality fell and earnings quality remains fragile.
DECK is described as cheap versus peers, though the valuation evidence also shows a sizable premium relative to peers, so the picture is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially supportive; the evidence does not specify exactly what assumptions the market has priced in.
Near term, sales are growing but at a measured pace: third-quarter net sales rose 3.5%, with HOKA up 6.8% and UGG up 3.5%. Management’s fiscal 2027 sales outlook points to continued growth, while planned share repurchases remain substantial. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, and recent earnings surprises have trended down despite a reported earnings beat.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether HOKA and UGG sustain growth and whether management delivers its sales outlook without cutting guidance. Results and guidance from NKE, CROX, and SHOO may signal whether the broader consumer discretionary backdrop is strengthening or weakening.
Over a 1-to-3-year horizon, DECK has continued brand growth and capital returns, but moderated revenue growth and fragile earnings quality leave execution as the key test. The evidence supports a watchful, mixed long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Deckers Brands's published investment case. The stated target is ~22.5% operating margin. |
| Broken |
| operating margin falls below 20% (mid-cycle floor) |
Operating margin: 26.3% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~22.5% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 202626.304748 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve high-single-digit revenue growth in FY 2027 | A primary condition in Deckers Brands's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.8% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below ~8.8% in FY 2027 | Revenue growth: 3.47% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8.8% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20263.474463 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.35 → $8.10 · observed estimates
$6.34B → $6.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.35 | $6,341,499,191 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.38 | $6,319,304,280 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.38 | $6,319,304,280 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.39 | $6,316,403,930 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.39 | $6,316,403,930 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.34 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.35 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.35 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.35 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.36 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.40 | $6,316,403,930 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.40 | $6,316,403,930 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.40 | $6,316,403,930 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.36 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.36 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.40 | $6,316,407,700 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.40 | $6,316,407,700 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.40 | $6,316,407,700 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-11 | $8.40 | $6,316,407,700 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.40 | $6,316,407,700 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.36 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.36 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.36 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.36 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.36 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.36 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.36 | $6,322,167,363 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.36 | $6,322,172,106 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.36 | $6,322,241,671 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.36 | $6,322,241,671 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.36 | $6,322,241,671 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.36 | $6,322,241,671 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.36 | $6,322,241,671 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.36 | $6,322,241,671 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.36 | $6,322,241,671 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.36 | $6,322,241,671 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.32 | $6,308,468,856 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.34 | $6,313,356,601 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.34 | $6,313,356,601 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.34 | $6,313,356,601 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.34 | $6,313,356,601 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.34 | $6,313,356,601 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.34 | $6,313,356,601 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.34 | $6,313,356,601 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.34 | $6,311,711,822 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.34 | $6,311,711,822 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.34 | $6,311,162,139 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.34 | $6,311,162,139 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.34 | $6,311,162,139 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.34 | $6,309,270,472 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.33 | $6,308,017,565 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.24 | $6,239,031,613 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.13 | $6,070,861,162 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.13 | $6,055,052,088 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.13 | $6,055,052,088 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.13 | $6,055,052,088 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.10 | $6,035,230,728 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.10 | $6,035,230,728 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.10 | $6,035,230,728 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.10 | $6,035,211,323 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.10 | $6,035,211,323 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.10 | $6,035,211,323 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.10 | $6,035,211,323 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.10 | $6,035,211,323 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-05 | $8.10 | $6,035,211,323 | 17 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 13 recorded
0 raises · 10 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.