Deckers Brands (DECK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$85.81+1.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DECK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
DECK — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-28
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 27, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Deckers Outdoor Corporation (the “Company”), Deckers Europe Limited, Deckers UK Ltd., Deckers Outdoor Canada ULC, Deckers Outdoor International Limited, Deckers Coromar, LLC and DBrands SGP Pte. Ltd. (collectively, the “Borrowers”), Deckers Consumer Direct Corporation, Deckers Retail, LLC, Deckers Camino, LLC, and Deckers Pacific Corporation (collectively, the “Guarantors”) entered into a First Amendment to…
Why it matters: DTC sales growth indicates brand strength. A decline suggests weakening consumer demand.
Worry ifDTC sales growth reported below 6.8% year over year.
Less concerning ifDTC sales growth meets or exceeds 6.8% year over year.
Why it matters: This may show problems with costs and making money.
Worry ifThe operating margin is less than 21.5%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin is at or above 21.5%.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control. It also shows the company works efficiently.
Supportive ifOperating margin of at least 22% in Q1 FY 2027.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 20% in Q1 FY 2027.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below this level may show lower profits and hurt stock performance.
Worry ifQ3 FY 2027 diluted EPS reported below $1.00.
Less concerning ifQ3 FY 2027 diluted EPS reported at or above $1.00.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,394 loss on $10,000 · 33.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong international sales growth shows a bigger market presence and brand strength.
Supportive ifInternational sales growth is above 20% year over year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifInternational sales growth is below 10% year over year in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: HOKA is a key driver of revenue. Slower growth could signal brand weakness or increased competition.
Worry ifHOKA brand sales growth reported below 7% year over year.
Less concerning ifHOKA brand sales growth reported at or above 7% year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown may mean cash flow problems. It could also show a change in spending plans.
Worry ifShare buybacks were less than $100 million in a quarter.
Less concerning ifShare buybacks were more than $100 million in a quarter.
Why it matters: A recovery would signal that the company can bounce back from challenges. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows a profit, reversing the recent earnings miss.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report may show another miss or big losses.
Why it matters: This would signal a potential slowdown in demand for HOKA and UGG, key brands for Deckers.
Worry ifQ2 FY 2027 revenue growth reported below 5%.
Less concerning ifQ2 FY 2027 revenue growth reported at 5% or higher.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean costs are rising or prices are under pressure. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 56.5%.
Less concerning ifGross margin reported at 56.5% or higher.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance shows stronger profit expectations. It also shows more confidence from investors.
Supportive ifFY 2027 diluted EPS guidance raised above $7.50.
Worry ifFY 2027 diluted EPS guidance remains at or below $7.35.
Why it matters: More share buybacks mean management thinks the company is valuable and will grow.
Supportive ifShare repurchases are over $1 billion in FY 2027.
Worry ifShare repurchases are below $1 billion in FY 2027.