Deckers Brands (DECK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$87.74-1.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DECK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DECK — director transition
Dated 2026-10-22
Director — Lauri Shanahan: The filing describes the orderly retirement of a long-serving director with a named successor, which is a routine board succession event rather than a sudden executive loss.
Why it matters: The company cut its sales range from $5.86B–$5.91B. Meeting the new range would support its revised outlook.
Watch forFY 2027 net sales land at or above $5.700 billion and at or below $5.725 billion.
Also watch forFY 2027 net sales fall below $5.700 billion or rise above $5.725 billion.
Why it matters: The sector report says revenue is shrinking, but recent data hints at a change. Positive growth would ease that headwind for Deckers.
Watch forThe sector report shows revenue growth above 0% and no longer calls the sector contracting.
Also watch forThe sector report still shows shrinking revenue and a declining phase.
Why it matters: The new EPS range includes about $0.52 from tariff refunds. Results above the range without more refunds would show stronger earnings from the business.
Supportive ifFY 2027 diluted EPS exceeds $7.95, with no further tariff refunds included.
Worry ifFY 2027 diluted EPS falls below $7.80, or the company counts on further refunds to support its outlook.
Why it matters: UGG grew 3.5% in Q2. Growth above that level would beat the current full-year plan.
Supportive ifUGG net sales grow more than 3.5% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifUGG net sales growth falls below 3.5% year over year or turns negative.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $374 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,591 loss on $10,000 · 35.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: DTC comparable sales fell 6.4% in Q2 after rising 6.8% in Q1. A return to growth would show a stronger direct sales trend.
Supportive ifDTC comparable net sales are higher than a year ago in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifDTC comparable net sales fall another 6.4% or more year over year.
Why it matters: HOKA sales rose 6.8% in Q2, slower than its earlier pace. Faster growth would support the brand growth plan.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, HOKA net sales grow more than 6.8% year over year.
Worry ifHOKA net sales grow less than 6.8% year over year, or decline.