Dell Technologies (DELL)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$524.14+1.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DELL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 47.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DELL — capital allocation — Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-07-06
Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Completing the buyback shows Dell's commitment to returning value to shareholders. Delays could signal financial strain.
Supportive ifThe buyback was done as planned on December 20, 2023.
Worry ifBuyback not completed by December 20, 2023.
Why it matters: The buyback can signal management's confidence in the company's value. Progress on this front may support stock price stability.
Supportive ifDell finished buying back shares for $2.1 billion.
Worry ifNo updates on share buyback progress or a halt in the program.
Why it matters: A drop could indicate a slowdown in the IT sector, affecting Dell's growth.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below its median for two months in a row.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for the same period.
Why it matters: Paying back the credit agreement can change Dell's cash flow. This impacts their growth investments.
Worry ifDell has a big increase in cash reserves after paying back the loan.
Less concerning ifDell has less cash or liquidity problems after paying back the loan.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$333 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $572 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,232 loss on $10,000 · 32.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth indicates Dell is on track with its growth priorities.
Supportive ifQ1 revenue is over $43.8 billion. This shows growth is continuing.
Worry ifQ1 revenue falls below $43.8 billion, indicating a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Completing this task shows Dell cares about handling debt. It also shows they want to improve their finances.
Watch forAll valid securities sent in will be accepted by the January 3 deadline.
Also watch forTender offers are not fully taken or extended past January 3.
Why it matters: Adjustments to the cap could indicate Dell's confidence in managing its debt load.
Watch forDell raises the Aggregate Tender Cap. This shows confidence in cash flow.
Also watch forDell lowers the Aggregate Tender Cap. This shows worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: This revenue range shows if Dell continues its strong growth. Meeting or exceeding it confirms momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 FY27 revenue reported at or above $44.5 billion.
Worry ifQ2 FY27 revenue reported below $44.0 billion.
Why it matters: A rise in non-GAAP EPS shows better profits and financial health.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reported up more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS reported flat or down year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority. A drop below 20% could signal slowing momentum.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above 20% year over year, showing strong demand.
Why it matters: Continued net income growth shows Dell's profitability. It is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income reported at or above $3.4 billion for Q2 FY27.
Worry ifNet income reported below $3.0 billion for Q2 FY27.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance would reinforce Dell's growth story and attract investor interest. It shows strong operational performance.
Supportive ifQ3 FY27 GAAP diluted EPS reported above $4.48.
Worry ifQ3 FY27 GAAP diluted EPS reported below $4.48.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback shows confidence in financial health. It can support share prices.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of completion of the $2.1 billion share buyback.
Worry ifThere is no news about finishing the buyback. There are also no big delays.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use will show how recent stock sales affect growth plans.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan for using money from stock sales to boost growth.
Also watch forManagement has no clear plan for how to use the money from stock sales.
Why it matters: Higher EPS means Dell is making more money. It is also following its growth plan.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS exceeds $5.24 in Q1 2026, confirming strong earnings growth.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS falls below $5.24 in Q1 2026, suggesting weaker performance.
Why it matters: The success of these offers will impact Dell's debt levels and financial flexibility. A high acceptance rate shows strong investor confidence.
Watch forA significant portion of the $500 million tender cap is accepted.
Also watch forLess than 50% of the tender cap is accepted.
Why it matters: The outcome of these offers will show how Dell manages its debt. Successful tendering can improve financial health and investor confidence.
Watch forDell successfully tenders for at least $300 million of its debt securities.
Also watch forDell fails to tender for the expected amount or the offers are not fully subscribed.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal shows strong demand. This is true for AI-optimized servers.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $49 billion or higher, reflecting strong growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $49 billion. This means demand is weaker.
Why it matters: Hitting or exceeding this EPS shows strong profits. It also shows good cost control.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS reported at $6.10 or higher for Q3.
Worry ifDiluted EPS reported below $6.10 for Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows growth in AI solutions. It also backs management's plan.
Supportive ifAI-Optimized Servers revenue was $74 billion or more for FY27.
Worry ifAI-Optimized Servers made less than $60 billion in revenue for FY27.