Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
DIAGEO PLC (DEO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
$100.25+2.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.32 → 7.05 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DEO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective cost cuts and job reductions | Cost cuts aim to improve profits despite a tough market. | Intact | Cost cuts fail to stabilize margins or lead to operational issues | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer staples business, but the evidence is too thin to classify its long-term investment profile with confidence. The current thesis state is insufficient, and the evidence snapshot carries low overall confidence.
The valuation evidence is limited to high model confidence, with no valuation level or peer comparison provided. No fragility gates fired, but the snapshot does not show what business expectations the market has already priced in.
Near term, the recent quarterly miss and pattern of misses raise the risk of another disappointing report. Over the multi-year view, the evidence does not establish a clear fundamental trend; the broader sector backdrop is described as supportive.
The near-term setup depends partly on whether sector bellwethers BUD, STZ, and TAP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, or instead begin missing and lowering guidance. A further weakening in the jobs report could also increase recession fears and weigh on cyclical companies, including consumer staples names.
The 1-to-3-year view remains unresolved: sector momentum is a potential support, while repeated earnings misses and limited thesis evidence are important concerns. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in DIAGEO PLC's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.35 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $6.35 in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful new product launches like Bulleit 20-year whiskey | New products like Bulleit's 20-year whiskey boost the brand. | Intact | Lack of successful new products weakens brand competitiveness | Qualitative: 1 successful launch (Johnnie Walker India blend) vs target of sustained launches Johnnie Walker launched a new India-inspired Blue Label blend, reinforcing brand competitiveness despite regulatory noise in India. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $19.4 billion in FY27 | A primary condition in DIAGEO PLC's published investment case. The stated target is ~19.4 USD billion. | Intact | Revenue falls significantly below $19 billion in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.09 → $7.05 · observed estimates
$19.78B → $19.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.09 | $19,782,345,406 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.09 | $19,782,345,406 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.09 | $19,782,345,406 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.07 | $19,755,751,897 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.07 | $19,755,751,897 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.07 | $19,755,751,897 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.17 | $19,729,628,600 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.17 | $19,729,628,600 | 2 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.91 | $19,526,582,090 | 4 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.07 | $19,752,843,858 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.23 | $19,323,770,921 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.23 | $19,323,770,921 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.23 | $19,323,770,921 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.23 | $19,323,770,921 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.23 | $19,323,770,921 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.24 | $19,357,894,759 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.24 | $19,357,894,759 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.24 | $19,357,894,759 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.24 | $19,357,894,759 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.25 | $19,329,843,397 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.25 | $19,329,843,397 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.25 | $19,329,843,397 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.25 | $19,329,843,397 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.25 | $19,329,842,202 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.25 | $19,329,842,202 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.25 | $19,329,842,202 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.26 | $19,307,231,091 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.26 | $19,307,231,091 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.26 | $19,307,231,091 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.26 | $19,307,231,091 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.26 | $19,310,013,453 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.26 | $19,310,013,453 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.26 | $19,310,013,453 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.25 | $19,310,013,453 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.25 | $19,310,013,453 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.25 | $19,310,013,453 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.31 | $19,301,202,127 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.31 | $19,301,202,127 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.31 | $19,301,202,127 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.32 | $19,319,013,810 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.32 | $19,319,013,810 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.32 | $19,319,013,810 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.32 | $19,319,013,810 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.32 | $19,319,013,810 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.32 | $19,319,013,810 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.32 | $19,319,013,810 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.32 | $19,319,035,460 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.32 | $19,319,152,574 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.32 | $19,319,152,574 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.32 | $19,319,152,574 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.32 | $19,319,152,574 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.32 | $19,319,152,574 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.32 | $19,299,681,008 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.31 | $19,274,064,302 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.31 | $19,238,936,986 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.28 | $19,230,305,747 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.28 | $19,230,305,747 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.28 | $19,230,305,747 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.28 | $19,230,305,747 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.28 | $19,230,300,274 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.28 | $19,230,300,274 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.28 | $19,230,300,274 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.28 | $19,228,445,077 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.28 | $19,224,667,299 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.28 | $19,224,667,299 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.28 | $19,224,667,299 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.28 | $19,224,667,299 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.28 | $19,210,117,925 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.28 | $19,210,117,925 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.28 | $19,210,117,925 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.28 | $19,210,117,925 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.28 | $19,210,117,925 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.28 | $19,210,117,925 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.05 | $19,210,117,925 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.05 | $19,210,117,925 | 5 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.