DIAGEO PLC (DEO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$89.19-1.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DEO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Positive GDP growth may show better economic conditions. This can increase consumer spending on premium products.
Supportive ifGDP growth is reported above 0% in the second estimate on August 26, 2026.
Worry ifGDP growth remains negative or flat in the second estimate.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a stronger demand for Diageo's products.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to about 6% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change how much people spend. This is important for Diageo's sales. Changes in interest rates can affect how people buy.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates. This causes a clear drop in consumer spending.
Also watch forFOMC keeps rates the same. Consumer spending stays steady or goes up.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show the sector is recovering. This could make investors feel better about Diageo.
Supportive ifConsumer Staples sector reports positive revenue growth for the first time in over a year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative for another quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $280 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,257 loss on $10,000 · 32.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improved consumer spending could indicate stronger demand for Diageo's products. This may support revenue growth.
Supportive ifPersonal Income and Outlays report shows spending growth above 0% on August 26, 2026.
Worry ifConsumer spending growth is less than 0% or is falling.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Diageo is doing. It may change how investors feel.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) exceeds analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Also watch forEPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it shows the Consumer Staples sector is recovering. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth for Diageo turns positive year over year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: If Diageo does better than Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble, it may show a strong market position.
Supportive ifDiageo's stock does better than Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble in the next quarter.
Worry ifDiageo's stock does worse than Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifRevenue growth speeds up to 5% or more each year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 2% year over year for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: Strong retail sales can indicate higher demand for Diageo's products in the market.
Supportive ifRetail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Worry ifRetail sales decrease or grow less than 0.1% month over month.
Why it matters: CPI changes can impact consumer spending and pricing power for Diageo's products.
Watch forCPI increases more than 0.3% month over month.
Also watch forCPI increases less than 0.1% month over month.