Dollar General (DG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$133.21+1.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 70.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DG — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-08-28
General Counsel — Rhonda M. Taylor: The Executive Vice President and General Counsel is retiring but transitioning to a senior advisory role, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The transition to a new CEO can impact company strategy and investor confidence. How this change is received will be important.
Watch forPositive market reaction following the announcement of Jerry W. Fleeman Jr. as the new CEO.
Also watch forThe market reacted negatively. There are concerns about the new CEO's strategy.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key for making money and being seen in the market.
Supportive ifCompletion of 450 new store openings by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 400 new stores opened by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. Meeting this target is crucial.
Supportive ifEPS reported between $7.10 and $7.35.
Worry ifEPS reported below $7.10.
Why it matters: More capital spending might mean fast growth. But it can hurt finances if not managed.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $1.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $339 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,456 loss on $10,000 · 34.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling below this target may show weak sales and loss of market share.
Worry ifNet sales growth reported below 3.7% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet sales growth reported above 4.2% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to meeting the company's financial goals for the year.
Supportive ifSales growth reported at or above 3.7% for the fiscal year.
Worry ifSales growth reported below 3.7% for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: A downward change could show problems with profits and investor trust.
Worry ifEPS guidance updated to below $7.10 for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifEPS guidance maintained or raised above $7.35 for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This call will provide insights on financial performance and future guidance.
Watch forThere was positive talk during the earnings call.
Also watch forThere was negative talk or cuts during the earnings call.
Why it matters: This report will show sales performance. It will also share management's outlook for the year.
Watch forEarnings report shows sales and EPS growth better than expected.
Also watch forEarnings report shows sales and EPS growth worse than expected.
Why it matters: This is a key measure of customer traffic and spending. A drop could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifSame-store sales growth reported below 2.5% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSame-store sales growth reported above 2.9% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability. A miss could raise concerns about cost management.
Worry ifDiluted EPS was below $7.80 for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifDiluted EPS was above $8.00 for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This index affects inflation and how much people spend. Changes may impact Dollar General's prices.
Watch forThe Producer Price Index shows an increase. This means inflation pressures are rising.
Also watch forThe Producer Price Index shows a decrease. This means inflation pressures are easing.
Why it matters: More spending may show growth plans. It could also raise worries about money management.
Watch forSpending was over $1.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Also watch forSpending was below $1.4 billion for fiscal 2026.