Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-30 · fmp
Dollar General (DG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$138.00-2.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.35 → 8.35 EPS · FY ending Jan 30, 2028 · 24 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 23 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital expenditures between $1.4B and $1.5B in fiscal 2026 | A supporting condition in Dollar General's published investment case. The stated target is $1.4B to $1.5B capital expenditures. | Intact | Capital expenditures exceed $1.5B or fall below $1.4B in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $406.845M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.4B to $1.5B capital expenditures. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 2026406,845,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DG is a value-oriented consumer staples business with a currently improving operating signal, rather than a turnaround thesis. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent performance remains in the stronger half of its industry, though the evidence snapshot has medium confidence.
Valuation is tagged as cheap, while the model shows DG at a 1.1 premium versus peers and expectations broadly aligned with the evidence. The expectations gap is negative, and the low fragility reading suggests the setup is not especially dependent on fragile market assumptions.
Near term, revenue and diluted EPS have improved, and management raised fiscal 2026 sales and EPS guidance; both priorities are on track. Capital spending is consistent with its stated range so far, though its status is mixed, and the recent litigation filing adds uncertainty. The estimated chance of a near-term earnings miss is low, but weakening employment and recent peer misses remain risks.
The multi-year view depends in part on management delivering the raised guidance without reversing it, which could damage credibility. A weaker jobs trend could increase recession concerns, while continued strong results and higher guidance from major sector peers could support momentum across consumer staples.
DG’s 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, supported by improving results and guidance, with valuation tagged as cheap. Its key tests are continued execution, economic resilience, and the impact of the recent litigation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company is also reiterating its plans to execute approximately 4,730 real estate projects in fiscal 2026, including opening approximately 450 new stores in the United States and approximately 10 new stores in Mexico, remodeling approximately 2,000 stores through Project Renovate, remodeling approximately 2,250 stores through Project Elevate, and relocating approximately 20 stores.” ““Our topline results were highlighted by positive customer traffic and balanced category growth, while continued progress on our key initiatives drove another quarter of strong operating profit growth.””
Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026Achieve EPS of $7.10 to $7.35 in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Dollar General's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $7.10 and $7.35. | Intact | EPS falls below $7.10 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $2.48 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $7.10 and $7.35. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 20262.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company is also reiterating its plans to execute approximately 4,730 real estate projects in fiscal 2026, including opening approximately 450 new stores in the United States and approximately 10 new stores in Mexico, remodeling approximately 2,000 stores through Project Renovate, remodeling approximately 2,250 stores through Project Elevate, and relocating approximately 20 stores.” ““Our topline results were highlighted by positive customer traffic and balanced category growth, while continued progress on our key initiatives drove another quarter of strong operating profit growth.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase net sales by 3.7% to 4.2% in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Dollar General's published investment case. The stated target is 3.7% to 4.2% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3.7% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company is also reiterating its plans to execute approximately 4,730 real estate projects in fiscal 2026, including opening approximately 450 new stores in the United States and approximately 10 new stores in Mexico, remodeling approximately 2,000 stores through Project Renovate, remodeling approximately 2,250 stores through Project Elevate, and relocating approximately 20 stores.” ““Our topline results were highlighted by positive customer traffic and balanced category growth, while continued progress on our key initiatives drove another quarter of strong operating profit growth.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.01 → $8.35 · observed estimates
$46.27B → $46.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.01 | $46,272,207,373 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.01 | $46,272,207,373 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.01 | $46,272,207,373 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.01 | $46,272,207,373 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.01 | $46,272,207,373 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.01 | $46,272,207,373 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.01 | $46,272,207,373 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.02 | $46,286,718,484 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.02 | $46,286,718,484 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.02 | $46,286,718,484 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.02 | $46,286,718,484 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-11 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.02 | $46,286,711,077 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.04 | $46,284,326,624 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.04 | $46,284,326,624 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.04 | $46,284,326,624 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.04 | $46,284,326,624 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.04 | $46,284,326,624 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.04 | $46,284,326,624 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.04 | $46,290,920,367 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.04 | $46,290,920,367 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.04 | $46,290,920,367 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.30 | $46,316,262,959 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.30 | $46,316,262,959 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.30 | $46,319,448,144 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.31 | $46,329,644,440 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.33 | $46,334,814,811 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.33 | $46,334,814,811 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.33 | $46,334,814,811 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.33 | $46,334,814,811 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.34 | $46,334,831,396 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.34 | $46,334,831,396 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.34 | $46,334,831,396 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.34 | $46,334,831,396 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.34 | $46,334,831,396 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.35 | $46,316,747,988 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.35 | $46,328,423,988 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.35 | $46,328,423,988 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.35 | $46,328,423,988 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.35 | $46,328,423,988 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.35 | $46,328,423,988 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.35 | $46,328,423,988 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.35 | $46,328,423,988 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.35 | $46,328,423,988 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.35 | $46,328,423,988 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.35 | $46,328,412,877 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.35 | $46,328,412,877 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.35 | $46,328,412,877 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.36 | $46,330,009,174 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.35 | $46,311,794,560 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.35 | $46,311,794,560 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.35 | $46,311,794,560 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.35 | $46,311,794,560 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.35 | $46,311,794,560 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.35 | $46,311,241,756 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.35 | $46,311,241,756 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.35 | $46,311,241,756 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.35 | $46,311,241,756 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.35 | $46,311,241,756 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.35 | $46,311,241,756 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.35 | $46,311,241,756 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.35 | $46,311,241,756 | 24 / 22 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 17 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.