D. R. Horton (DHI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-07-07
$155.52-0.87%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $155.52. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $156 DHI trades at 15× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $172 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $14.67/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $272.84 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $280.99 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $29.26 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $141.78 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $68.11 | 23.2 | 2.94 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $189.06 | 13.9 | 14.52 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $235.88 | 19.5 | 12.10 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $247.18 | 23.2 | 10.67 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $240.62 | 2.1 | 115.39 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $471.55 | 44.2 | 10.67 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $97.70 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $134.12 | 12.6 | 10.67 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $252.92 | 23.2 | 10.92 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $91.67 | 23.2 | 3.96 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $303.86 | 19.5 | 15.59 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $325.71 | 23.2 | 14.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $267.75 | 2.1 | 128.40 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $621.34 | 44.2 | 14.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $176.73 | 12.6 | 14.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $111.75 | 23.2 | 4.82 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $359.74 | 19.5 | 18.46 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $338.56 | 23.2 | 14.61 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $278.32 | 2.1 | 133.47 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $645.86 | 44.2 | 14.61 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $183.70 | 12.6 | 14.61 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.