D. R. Horton (DHI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$157.63+0.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DHI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DHI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026, D.R. Horton, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results and related information for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended September 30, 2026 and declaring its quarterly dividend. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference in its entirety into this
Why it matters: D.R. Horton said cautious buyers and affordability limits hurt demand. Weak job or retail data could add to that pressure; firm data would ease this concern.
Watch forThe November 6 jobs report shows job losses, or the November 17 retail report shows lower sales than the prior month.
Also watch forThe November 6 jobs report shows job gains, and the November 17 retail report shows higher sales than the prior month.
Why it matters: The company plans $3.0 billion in fiscal 2027 repurchases after buying back $3.6 billion in fiscal 2026. Falling short would mark less capital returned through buybacks.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 share repurchases total less than $3.0 billion.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 share repurchases total at least $3.0 billion.
Why it matters: The board raised the quarterly dividend 11% to $0.50 per share. Payment on the stated date would confirm delivery of that increase.
Supportive ifDHI pays $0.50 per share on November 19, 2026, to holders of record on November 12.
Worry ifDHI delays, cuts, or does not pay the stated $0.50 dividend.
Why it matters: Fourth-quarter net orders fell 7%, while cancellations rose to 23%. A steeper order drop would point to weaker buyer demand.
Worry ifA reported quarter shows net sales orders down more than 7% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet sales orders are flat or higher year over year, and cancellations fall below 23%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$149 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $334 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,101 loss on $10,000 · 21.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The fourth-quarter margin fell to 10.8% as earnings declined. A further drop would point to more pressure from prices and incentives.
Worry ifA fiscal 2027 quarterly pre-tax margin prints below 10.8%.
Less concerning ifA fiscal 2027 quarterly pre-tax margin holds above 10.8%.