D. R. Horton (DHI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$142.75-1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DHI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
DHI — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-12
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above under
Why it matters: Falling net sales orders show weaker demand. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifNet sales orders were below 24,000 homes.
Less concerning ifNet sales orders remain above 24,000 homes.
Why it matters: A stable or lower debt ratio shows good financial health. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifDebt to total capital ratio reported at or below 22%.
Worry ifDebt to total capital ratio rises above 24%.
Why it matters: Going over this target shows good efficiency and strong finances.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was over $3.0 billion for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $3.0 billion.
Why it matters: An increase in net sales orders indicates improving demand and market conditions. This is crucial for revenue growth.
Supportive ifNet sales orders reported at or above 27,500 homes.
Worry ifNet sales orders are below 24,000 homes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $341 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,756 loss on $10,000 · 27.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower revenue shows problems in the housing market and less consumer demand.
Worry ifConsolidated revenue reaches $32.5 billion or more in Q4.
Less concerning ifRevenue is below $32.5 billion in Q4.
Why it matters: Lower revenues show continued market pressures. This can hurt financial health.
Worry ifRevenues were less than $32.5 billion.
Less concerning ifRevenues were $32.5 billion or more.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can boost stock value and show confidence in the company's future. They are a sign of strong capital allocation.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new share buyback program or increase in the existing buyback.
Worry ifThere are no new buyback plans or cuts to the current program.
Why it matters: Changes in financial needs can impact cash flow and investment ability. This is key for stability.
Worry ifD.R. Horton reports a reduction in financial obligations.
Less concerning ifD.R. Horton reports an increase in financial obligations.
Why it matters: Progress on share buybacks shows that management is confident. They trust the company's future.
Supportive ifD.R. Horton announces completion of $1 billion in share repurchases by the end of Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchase activity slows down a lot. This may show cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: This revenue number shows if demand is steady. It matters because it shows market strength.
Supportive ifQ3 home sales revenue reported at or above $8.5 billion.
Worry ifQ3 home sales revenue falls below $8.0 billion.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would reflect strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal dividend payments reach $500 million.
Worry ifDividend payments fall below $500 million.
Why it matters: Finishing the share repurchase plan shows good use of money and trust in the company.
Supportive ifCompletion of the $2.5 billion share repurchase program by fiscal year-end.
Worry ifThe company may cut or delay the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: High sales incentives show weak demand. This could hurt profit margins.
Worry ifSales incentives reported to stay high during Q4.
Less concerning ifSales incentives reported to drop in Q4.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good financial health. It shows commitment to shareholders. This builds investor trust.
Supportive ifD.R. Horton declares a dividend payment of $500 million.
Worry ifD.R. Horton cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show strong demand and effective management in a tough market.
Supportive ifHome closings reach or exceed 84,300 homes in Q4 fiscal 2026.
Worry ifHome closings fall below 83,800 homes in Q4 fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: If revenues reach this amount, it shows strength in a tough housing market.
Supportive ifRevenues hit $32.5 billion or more in fiscal 2026.
Worry ifRevenues drop below $32.5 billion in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: A higher cancellation rate may show weaker demand and hurt future sales.
Worry ifCancellation rate exceeds 20% in Q4 fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifCancellation rate stays below 20% in Q4 fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show strong capital return and confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reach $2.5 billion by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases fall below $2.5 billion by the end of fiscal 2026.