D. R. Horton (DHI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$142.75-1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Increase revenue to $33.5-$34.5 billion in fiscal 2026: FY26 revenue guidance $32.5B-$33.0B vs $33.5B target.
D.R. Horton is growing revenue toward $33.5-$34.5 billion in 2026. The company repurchased $1.6 billion in shares in the first half of 2026. Profitability remains solid with recent earnings beats. The stock trades cheap versus peers at a P/E of 14.6.
Macro headwinds and housing market challenges could slow revenue growth below targets. Legal claims about construction quality may hurt reputation and sales. The company’s revenue fell from $9.7 billion in 2025-Q4 to $7.6 billion in 2026-Q2, showing pressure.
The price is about 9% below our fair value near $171. Analysts expect 6% revenue growth, which aligns with management’s guidance. Our view is cautious given macro risks and recent revenue softness.
Breaks if: Dividends fall well below $500 million in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 6% next year due to macro factors
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
DHI represents a durable compounder in the Consumer Discretionary sector, but its current thesis is under pressure due to recent downward revisions in guidance. The company is navigating through a challenging environment with moderate risk and fragile earnings quality.
The market currently prices DHI as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap suggesting that some concerns are already reflected in the valuation. The fragility in earnings quality indicates that the market does not fully account for potential execution risks.
Management is focused on increasing revenues and home closings, but recent downward revisions in guidance suggest a cautious approach. The near-term risk of missing expectations is low, but recent performance has shown some weakness compared to industry peers.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet revised revenue and closing targets while navigating sector headwinds. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and inflation trends will be critical in shaping DHI's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. DHI's recent financial performance fell to the 50th percentile. This is a notable drop from the robust 79th percentile. The company also faces a threat as its reason to own has weakened. Despite this, DHI beat earnings expectations and aims to increase revenues to $32.5-$33.0 billion in fiscal 2026.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $33.5 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Repurchases fall significantly short of $2.5 billion in FY26
Overall, DHI's outlook remains cautious as it faces mixed execution and external pressures. Not investment advice.