Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
D. R. Horton (DHI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$157.63+0.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.50 → 10.49 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DHI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payments at approximately $500 million in fiscal 2026 | A supporting condition in D. R. Horton's published investment case. The stated target is Pay ~$500 million dividends in FY26. | Intact | Dividends fall well below $500 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DHI is a cyclical homebuilder, meaning its results can shift with conditions in the housing market. The multi-year view is intact, with recent performance still in the top half of its industry, but momentum weakened after the latest earnings.
DHI is valued cheaply versus peers, and the evidence describes expectations as broadly justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the valuation evidence does not point to a large cushion for weaker execution.
Near term, the latest earnings were in line and miss risk is described as low, though company momentum fell after the results. For fiscal 2026, revenue and home closings landed within updated guidance, but homebuilding pre-tax income declined 17%, and management expects incentives to remain elevated in fiscal 2027.
The multi-year thesis depends on management controlling building pace, pricing, incentives, and inventory while improving homebuilding profitability. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; results and guidance from PHM, LEN, and NVR may also signal whether sector support is strengthening or fading.
DHI’s long-term thesis remains intact, supported by recent industry-relative performance and disciplined capital returns, but weaker income and elevated incentives keep execution in focus over the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"Based on our solid financial position and cash flow, our Board recently increased our quarterly cash dividend by 11% to $0.50 per share, making fiscal 2027 our thirteenth consecutive year of dividend growth.”
Manage impact of macroeconomic headwinds on revenue growth | A primary condition in D. R. Horton's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth remains near 6% despite macro challenges. | Under Pressure | Revenue growth falls below 6% next year due to macro factors | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue to $33.5-$34.5 billion in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in D. R. Horton's published investment case. The stated target is >= $33.5 billion revenue in FY26. | Broken | Revenue falls below $33.5 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $9.371B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $33.5 billion revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20269,371,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Repurchase approximately $2.5 billion of shares in fiscal 2026 | The company repurchased $1.6 billion in shares in the first half of 2026. | Improving | Repurchases fall significantly short of $2.5 billion in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.54 → $10.49 · observed estimates
$36.86B → $32.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $13.54 | $36,858,254,259 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.54 | $36,858,254,259 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.50 | $36,487,957,264 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.50 | $36,487,957,264 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.50 | $36,487,957,264 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.50 | $36,487,957,264 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.42 | $36,196,591,941 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.40 | $36,372,128,514 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.40 | $36,372,128,514 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.40 | $36,372,128,514 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.40 | $36,372,128,514 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.40 | $36,372,128,514 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.32 | $36,190,507,014 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.32 | $35,944,821,412 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.32 | $35,944,821,412 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.18 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.18 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.18 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.18 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.18 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.11 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.05 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.05 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.05 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.05 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.05 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.05 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.05 | $35,833,868,019 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.68 | $35,217,365,854 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.96 | $35,855,030,666 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.49 | $33,915,481,677 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.49 | $33,659,165,161 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.51 | $33,520,318,065 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.02 | $32,941,985,992 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.49 | $32,650,502,911 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $10.49 | $32,650,502,911 | 12 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 9 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.