Diodes Incorporated (DIOD)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04

$79.46-5.67%

Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Diodes Incorporated’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.77 → 5.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DIOD yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS reaches $4.99 in FY 2027	Analysts expect earnings to rise to $4.99 per share next year.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.5 in FY 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 32.8% in Q2 2026	Profit margins are improving, with gross margin guided near 33%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 31% next quarter	Gross margin: 33.12% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~32.8%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 5, 202633.121525 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to at least $19.8 million in Q1 2026	Operating income rose sharply from $1.3M to $19.8M last year.	Improving	Operating income falls below $10 million next quarter	Operating income: $33.29M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $19.8 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202633,290,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $435 million in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Diodes Incorporated's published investment case. The stated target is >= $435 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $422 million in Q2 2026	Revenue: $445.529M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $435 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 5, 2026445,529,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.60

$4.99 → $5.60 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.25B

$2.07B → $2.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.99	$2,072,692,000	2 / 2
2026-07-25	$4.99	$2,072,692,000	2 / 2
2026-07-26	$4.76	$2,071,461,333	1 / 2
2026-07-27	$4.99	$2,072,692,000	2 / 2
2026-07-28	$4.99	$2,072,692,000	2 / 2
2026-07-29	$4.99	$2,072,692,000	2 / 2
2026-07-30	$4.76	$2,071,461,333	1 / 2
2026-07-31	$4.76	$2,071,461,333	1 / 2
2026-08-01	$4.76	$2,071,461,333	1 / 2
2026-08-02	$4.99	$2,072,692,000	2 / 2
2026-08-03	$4.99	$2,072,692,000	2 / 2
2026-08-04	$4.99	$2,072,692,000	2 / 2
2026-08-05	$4.99	$2,072,692,000	2 / 2
2026-08-06	$4.76	$2,071,461,333	1 / 2
2026-08-07	$5.33	$2,196,856,433	1 / 2
2026-08-08	$5.85	$2,260,794,500	2 / 2
2026-08-09	$5.85	$2,260,794,500	2 / 2
2026-08-10	$5.85	$2,260,794,500	2 / 2
2026-08-11	$5.33	$2,196,856,433	1 / 2
2026-08-12	$5.85	$2,260,794,500	2 / 2
2026-08-13	$5.85	$2,260,794,500	2 / 2
2026-08-14	$5.33	$2,196,856,433	1 / 2
2026-08-15	$5.33	$2,196,856,433	1 / 2
2026-08-16	$5.33	$2,196,856,433	1 / 2
2026-08-17	$5.33	$2,196,856,433	1 / 2
2026-08-18	$5.33	$2,196,856,433	1 / 2
2026-08-19	$5.33	$2,196,856,433	1 / 2
2026-08-20	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-21	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-22	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-23	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-24	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-25	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-26	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-27	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-28	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-29	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-30	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-08-31	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-01	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-02	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-03	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-04	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-05	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-06	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-07	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-08	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-09	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-10	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-11	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-12	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-13	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-14	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-15	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-16	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-17	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-18	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-19	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-20	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-21	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-22	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-23	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-24	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-25	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-26	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-27	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-28	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-29	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-09-30	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-10-01	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-10-02	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-10-03	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-10-04	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-10-05	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-10-06	$5.77	$2,273,529,667	1 / 2
2026-10-07	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	1 / 2
2026-10-08	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-09	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-10	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-11	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-12	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-13	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-14	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-15	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-16	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-17	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-18	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-19	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-20	$5.77	$2,275,524,016	2 / 3
2026-10-21	$5.82	$2,281,024,016	2 / 3
2026-10-22	$5.82	$2,281,024,016	2 / 3
2026-10-23	$5.82	$2,281,024,016	2 / 3
2026-10-24	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-10-25	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-10-26	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-10-27	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-10-28	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-10-29	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-10-30	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-10-31	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-11-01	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-11-02	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-11-03	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4
2026-11-04	$5.60	$2,247,619,213	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	3	0	0
2026-07-01	3	0	0
2026-08-01	2	0	0
2026-09-01	2	0	0
2026-10-01	4	0	0
2026-11-01	4	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

NeedhamOct 23

$110.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 6

$135.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$74.25$148.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS reaches $4.99 in FY 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near 32.8% in Q2 2026Gross margin: 33.12%
Operating income improves to at least $19.8 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $33.29M
Revenue reaches at least $435 million in Q2 2026Revenue: $445.529M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Diodes Incorporated outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

DIOD is a semiconductor growth and execution story, with revenue growth tied to automotive, industrial, and AI-related applications. The long-term thesis is intact, but risk is elevated and management has been volatile.

What's priced into Diodes Incorporated

The valuation evidence is mixed: DIOD is characterized as cheap versus peers, while the peer premium measure points in the opposite direction. The expectations gap is negative, and the overall priced-in tag is justified, with low measured fragility; model confidence is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent performance is strong: revenue increased from $332.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $445.5 million in 2026-Q2, while gross margin rose from 31.5% in 2025-Q2 to 33.1% in 2026-Q2. Management’s focus on application growth and efficiency appears to be delivering, including record automotive revenue at 21% of product revenue in 2026-Q2. Near term, a guidance cut is a meaningful risk, despite a quiet watch tier and an estimated 18% miss probability.

What Diodes Incorporated hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on continued growth in automotive, industrial, and AI-related applications, along with further margin improvement and progress toward management’s longer-term targets. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup; easing interest rates or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.