DRAFTKINGS INC (DKNG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.01-0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
DraftKings aims for $6.5B to $6.9B revenue in 2026. Adjusted EBITDA target is $700M to $900M. Growth in prediction markets and super app pivot support revenue goals. The company has strong market position and improving execution.
DraftKings is loss-making with thin profit margins. Revenue growth may slow below 14%. Competition and regulatory risks could pressure margins and cash flow.
The price is about 2% above our fair value near $26, reflecting roughly 14% revenue growth. Our fair value is 22% below the Street median, suggesting some caution versus more optimistic analyst views.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $500M in FY26
Maintain fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $700 million to $900 million.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is in a speculative growth category, as DKNG operates in a high-risk industry with fluctuating performance. The current thesis state is cautious, given the recent earnings miss and mixed management priorities.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, there is a premium compared to its peers, indicating that investors may expect stronger performance than what has been delivered recently.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, with a significant probability of missing future earnings expectations. Management's commitment to revenue and EBITDA targets is noted, but recent declines in these metrics raise concerns.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet guidance and improve financial performance. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector peers like LVS and MGM will be crucial in shaping DKNG's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. DraftKings launched a new marketing campaign called "Spin Your Way." This campaign aims to boost demand for its casino services. The company is investing in marketing to drive user engagement. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $167.9M in 2026-Q1 and declined to $114.6M in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently maintained the fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $700 million to $900 million. The trajectory shows a decline in quarterly Adjusted EBITDA but stable guidance commitment.
“We are maintaining our fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $700 million to $900 million.”
“We continue to expect fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $900 million.”
DraftKings aims to achieve fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $700 million and $900 million.
Breaks if: Prediction market volume and app engagement decline materially over next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $6.0B in FY26
Maintain fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance range of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $1.646B in 2026-Q1 and $1.443B in 2026-Q2, showing a slight decline quarter-over-quarter. Management has maintained the fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance range of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion across these quarters, indicating consistent commitment. The trajectory shows stable guidance despite quarterly revenue fluctuations.
“We are maintaining our fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance range of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion.”
“We continue to expect fiscal year 2026 revenue of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, DKNG's performance will depend on its execution against targets and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.