DRAFTKINGS INC (DKNG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.01-0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DKNG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The two one-year growth estimates are about the same.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DKNG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, DraftKings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is hereby incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: Cash reserved for users indicates financial health and customer trust. Changes can signal risks.
Worry ifCash set aside for users stays the same or rises from $378.67 million.
Less concerning ifCash set aside for users drops well below $378.67 million.
Why it matters: Revenue trends are key to understanding DraftKings' growth and market position. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $1.443 billion, continuing the decline from Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is over $1.443 billion. This shows recovery or stability.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth improves, it may mean DraftKings is recovering.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below -2% year over year.
Why it matters: The sports revenue margin impacts overall profits. A drop may show issues with customers.
Worry ifSports revenue margin improves to above 7.3% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSports revenue margin declines below 6.8% in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $599 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,550 loss on $10,000 · 55.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Guidance for Q2 revenue will show if growth trends continue. Investors look for stability.
Supportive ifDraftKings confirms Q2 revenue guidance of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion.
Worry ifDraftKings revises Q2 revenue guidance down from $6.5 billion.
Why it matters: Higher acquisition costs may show problems in attracting new customers. This affects profits.
Worry ifSales and marketing expenses exceed $400 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSales and marketing costs are below $400 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Monthly Unique Payers (MUPs) growth shows customer interest. A slowdown could hurt revenue.
Worry ifMUPs growth rate exceeds 9% in Q3 compared to the previous year.
Less concerning ifMUPs growth rate falls below 2% in Q3 compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how profitable a company is. A drop could mean problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 is over $200 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 falls below $100 million.
Why it matters: Management keeps its revenue guidance for FY 2026. A change could show business issues.
Watch forManagement says Q3 revenue guidance is between $6.5 billion and $6.9 billion.
Also watch forManagement cuts Q3 revenue guidance to under $6.5 billion.