Dollar Tree (DLTR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-07-08
$123.61+0.78%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $123.61. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $123 DLTR trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median — but our blended $147 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $85–$150. Not investment advice.
$85.00 – $150.00 (median $128.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 411% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 15.7 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.33/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $128.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $324.77 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $343.59 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $50.10 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $131.21 | 19.0 | 6.90 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $150.82 | 16.6 | 9.99 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $157.52 | 20.0 | 7.89 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $119.42 | 19.0 | 6.28 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $146.68 | 1.7 | 86.71 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $284.84 | 45.4 | 6.28 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $36.06 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $122.04 | 19.4 | 6.28 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $122.83 | 19.0 | 6.46 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $192.24 | 19.0 | 10.11 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $239.57 | 20.0 | 12.01 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $175.90 | 19.0 | 9.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $226.37 | 1.7 | 133.83 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $419.58 | 45.4 | 9.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $179.77 | 19.4 | 9.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $247.99 | 19.0 | 13.04 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $316.83 | 20.0 | 15.88 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $225.95 | 19.0 | 11.88 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $290.77 | 1.7 | 171.90 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $538.95 | 45.4 | 11.88 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $230.91 | 19.4 | 11.88 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.