Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$137.94-6.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.89 → 7.89 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DLTR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute $2.5 billion share buyback authorization | The company announced a $2.5 billion share buyback, showing strong capital return. | Intact | Buyback authorization is canceled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DLTR is a consumer staples retailer with a growth-oriented thesis supported by recent financial performance and a favorable sector backdrop. The thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution is neutral overall.
Valuation is characterized as justified, with no strong mismatch between the business setup and market expectations. DLTR trades at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting current expectations are not especially demanding.
Near term, results have been strong: adjusted diluted EPS guidance rose, quarterly diluted EPS increased, and comparable-store sales growth has been within management’s 3% to 4% range. The main risk is that earnings quality remains fragile, especially if management reverses its raised guidance; recent history of a deep miss also warrants attention.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued delivery against the fiscal 2026 EPS outlook and sustained comparable-store sales growth. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could pressure the business, while continued strength from sector peers such as WMT, COST, and TGT would support the sector backdrop.
DLTR’s multi-year view is supported by improving results and an intact thesis, but the premium to peers leaves execution and guidance credibility important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Dollar Tree's published investment case. The stated target is 3% to 4% growth. |
| Under Pressure |
| Comparable store sales growth falls below 3% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal 2026 Outlook • Net sales from continuing operations of $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion, based on comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4% • Approximately 400 new store openings and 75 closings • Adjusted diluted EPS of $7.70 to $8.05 including an approximate $0.60 benefit related to the net impact of tariff refunds Third Quarter 2026 Outlook • Net sales from continui ng operations of $5.0 to $5.1 billion, based on comparable store net sales growth in the range of 3.0% to 4.0%.” “"What continues to set Dollar Tree apart is our ability to deliver value, convenience, and the excitement of discovery all in one shopping trip,” said Mike Creedon, Chief Executive Officer.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve EPS of $6.70 to $7.10 in 2026 | A primary condition in Dollar Tree's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.7 USD per share. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $6.7 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $2.70 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.7 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 20262.7 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal 2026 Outlook • Net sales from continuing operations of $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion, based on comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4% • Approximately 400 new store openings and 75 closings • Adjusted diluted EPS of $7.70 to $8.05 including an approximate $0.60 benefit related to the net impact of tariff refunds Third Quarter 2026 Outlook • Net sales from continui ng operations of $5.0 to $5.1 billion, based on comparable store net sales growth in the range of 3.0% to 4.0%.” Diluted EPS was $2.70 in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.69 → $7.89 · observed estimates
$21.86B → $21.93B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.69 | $21,856,834,425 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.69 | $21,856,834,425 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.70 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.70 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.70 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.70 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.70 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.70 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.70 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.70 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.70 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.71 | $21,845,347,802 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.76 | $21,868,291,754 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.76 | $21,868,291,754 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.77 | $21,870,239,754 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.77 | $21,870,239,754 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.77 | $21,870,239,754 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.78 | $21,869,527,754 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.78 | $21,865,656,011 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.78 | $21,865,656,011 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.78 | $21,865,656,011 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.91 | $21,911,890,308 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.91 | $21,911,890,308 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.92 | $21,913,463,385 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.92 | $21,913,463,385 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.92 | $21,913,463,385 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.92 | $21,913,463,385 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.92 | $21,913,463,385 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.90 | $21,913,463,385 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.90 | $21,921,801,920 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.90 | $21,921,801,920 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.90 | $21,921,801,920 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.90 | $21,921,801,920 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.90 | $21,921,817,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.90 | $21,921,989,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.90 | $21,921,989,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.90 | $21,921,989,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.90 | $21,921,989,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.90 | $21,921,989,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.90 | $21,921,989,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.90 | $21,921,989,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.90 | $21,921,989,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.90 | $21,921,989,920 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.89 | $21,917,366,795 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.90 | $21,928,112,123 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.90 | $21,928,112,123 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.90 | $21,928,112,123 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.90 | $21,928,112,123 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.90 | $21,928,112,123 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.89 | $21,925,951,826 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.89 | $21,925,951,826 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.89 | $21,925,951,826 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.89 | $21,925,951,826 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.89 | $21,925,951,826 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.89 | $21,925,951,826 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.89 | $21,925,951,826 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.89 | $21,925,951,826 | 18 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.