Dollar Tree (DLTR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$131.42+0.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DLTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DLTR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-03-23
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Credit Agreement On March 19, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc., a Virginia corporation (the “Company”), entered into a credit agreement (the “Term Loan Credit Agreement”), with Bank of America, N.A., as agent, and the banks, financial institutions and other institutional lenders from time to time party thereto, providing for a $500 million term loan credit facility (the “Term Loan Facility”). The Term Loan Facility matures on March 19, 2029. Loans…
Why it matters: This shows strong capital use and trust in the business. It also affects shareholder value.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reported to exceed $1 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases reported below $1 billion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: EPS guidance of $6.70 to $7.10 is critical for investor confidence. Changes could impact stock sentiment.
Watch forManagement says EPS guidance is the same or higher.
Also watch forManagement cuts EPS guidance to below $6.70.
Why it matters: A growing margin shows better efficiency and cost control. This is important for long-term profit.
Supportive ifOperating income margin is set to grow by more than 120 basis points.
Worry ifOperating income margin may shrink or grow less than 120 basis points.
Why it matters: If earnings expectations go down, it may hurt how investors feel.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is now below $6.70.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is now at or above $7.10.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,853 loss on $10,000 · 38.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth range is a key target for Dollar Tree and signals its market strength.
Supportive ifIf comparable store sales grow by 4% or more, it shows strong performance.
Worry ifIf comparable store sales grow below 3%, it shows weakness in sales.
Why it matters: This range is key for keeping investor trust in the company's growth plan.
Supportive ifNet sales reported at $20.7 billion or higher for FY2026.
Worry ifNet sales reported below $20.5 billion for FY2026.
Why it matters: The earnings call will share details about performance and future plans.
Watch forThey gave positive comments on growth plans and financial results during the call.
Also watch forThey made negative comments or lowered guidance during the call.
Why it matters: This range is key to tracking progress towards the annual EPS target.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported between $1.00 and $1.15 for Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $1.00 for Q2.
Why it matters: News about share buybacks shows management's trust in the company's future.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the current $2.5 billion limit.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in share repurchase plans.
Why it matters: This shows success in expanding and accepting the multi-price format. It boosts future sales.
Supportive ifThe number of multi-price stores was over 7,000.
Worry ifThe number of multi-price stores was below 6,600.
Why it matters: If it falls below this level, it may show less demand. This could hurt confidence in Dollar Tree's growth plans.
Worry ifQ2 net sales reported above $4.8 billion.
Less concerning ifQ2 net sales reported below $4.8 billion.
Why it matters: Management's focus on costs is key for improving EPS and making more money.
Supportive ifManagement announces cost-saving steps that lead to a clear EPS increase.
Worry ifNo updates on cost benefits or no EPS improvement show ongoing problems.
Why it matters: This growth range is key to meeting management's target for the year. It shows if the company can maintain its sales momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 comparable store net sales growth reported between 3% and 4%.
Worry ifComparable store net sales growth is below 3%.
Why it matters: This range shows if the company can sustain its earnings growth. It reflects overall financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS is between $0.80 and $0.95.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS is below $0.80.
Why it matters: The company is buying back shares. This shows management thinks the company is valuable. It can help returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases reported to exceed $100 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases are below $50 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Tariff refunds have greatly increased margins. Changes could impact profits.
Watch forGross margin improvement from tariff refunds is above 600 basis points.
Also watch forGross margin improvement from tariff refunds drops below 300 basis points.