Dollar Tree (DLTR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$137.94-6.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DLTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
DLTR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-03-23
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Credit Agreement On March 19, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc., a Virginia corporation (the “Company”), entered into a credit agreement (the “Term Loan Credit Agreement”), with Bank of America, N.A., as agent, and the banks, financial institutions and other institutional lenders from time to time party thereto, providing for a $500 million term loan credit facility (the “Term Loan Facility”). The Term Loan Facility matures on March 19, 2029. Loans…
Why it matters: Dollar Tree set this range for Q3. Sales growth in range would keep its recent pace on track.
Supportive ifIn the December 2, 2026 results, Q3 comparable store sales growth is 3% to 4% or higher.
Worry ifQ3 comparable store sales growth is below 3%.
Why it matters: Dollar Tree added or converted about 710 stores in Q2 and ended with about 6,600. More conversions would show this plan is advancing.
Supportive ifThe December 2 update reports more than 6,600 multi-price stores.
Worry ifThe December 2 update says there are 6,600 or fewer multi-price stores.
Why it matters: The Q3 range includes about $0.50 from tariff refund reinvestments. The result will show how earnings track against that cost.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EPS is at least $0.80 and no more than $0.95.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EPS is below $0.80.
Why it matters: The latest outlook includes about $0.60 from tariff refunds. Results below the range would weaken the earnings outlook.
Watch forDollar Tree reports fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $7.70 to $8.05.
Also watch forDollar Tree reports fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS below $7.70.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $399 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,853 loss on $10,000 · 38.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company bought back $605 million of shares in Q2 and had $2.5 billion left under its authorization. A new report can show whether buybacks continue.
Supportive ifThe next results report shows share repurchases above zero for Q3.
Worry ifThe next results report shows no Q3 share repurchases.