Dollar Tree (DLTR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$147.00+9.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put DLTR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Staples is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.
View ThesisManagement screens strong on capital allocation, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 39% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskDollar Tree's value retail model has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue grew 7% year over year in the latest quarter. The company also beat earnings expectations by a wide margin. It trades at 19 times earnings versus a 16 times peer median. The price reflects less growth than our internal forecast. Comparable store sales growth is under pressure. The thesis comparison is not yet verified. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. DLTR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 29 analysts currently covering DLTR (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for DLTR in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare DLTR with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Staples (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put DLTR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Tariff refunds enhance cash flow for share repurchase program.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $147.00
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $147.00.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Drive comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%
Increased customer interest supports comparable store sales growth.
Incident may affect store operations and customer perception.
Increased competition may impact sales growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve adjusted diluted EPS of $7.70 to $8.05 in fiscal 2026
Strong results support EPS growth target for fiscal 2026.
Advances: Expand Dollar Tree multi-price store format
New store openings support multi-price format expansion.
Threatens: Drive comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%
Higher fuel prices threaten comparable store net sales growth.
Advances: Drive comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%
Tariff refunds can enhance profitability and support sales growth.
