Dollar Tree (DLTR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$131.42+0.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put DLTR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Staples is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve EPS of $6.70 to $7.10 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance mid $6.90 vs $6.70 target.
View ThesisManagement screens strong on capital allocation, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskDollar Tree's growth trajectory relies on achieving adjusted diluted EPS of $7.70 to $8.05 in fiscal 2026. Recent financial performance has been strong, with a second-quarter earnings beat and raised guidance. The stock trades at 19× P/E versus a peer median of 17×, indicating that expectations look modest compared to our view. A specific risk is the potential decline in fourth-quarter gross margins due to elevated freight surcharges, which could pressure earnings. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades. Our read remains intact.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. DLTR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 28 analysts currently covering DLTR (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for DLTR in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare DLTR with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Staples (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put DLTR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Increased competition may impact sales growth objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $131.42
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $131.42.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Achieve adjusted diluted EPS of $7.70 to $8.05 in fiscal 2026
Strong results support EPS growth target for fiscal 2026.
Advances: Expand Dollar Tree multi-price store format
New store openings support multi-price format expansion.
Threatens: Drive comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%
Higher fuel prices threaten comparable store net sales growth.
Advances: Drive comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%
Tariff refunds can enhance profitability and support sales growth.
Threatens: Drive comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%
Slowing same-store sales growth impacts growth objectives.
Advances: Comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%
Strong comp growth supports sales growth objective.
Threatens: Comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%
Product shortage may hinder comparable store sales growth.
