Dollar Tree (DLTR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-07-08
$123.61+0.78%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track DLTR free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Staples: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskDollar Tree's growth depends on its ability to achieve EPS of $6.70 to $7.10 in 2026. Recent earnings showed a solid beat with a 12.3% surprise and 7.2% revenue growth. It trades at 20× P/E versus a peer median of 19×. This suggests the price reflects modest growth expectations. A specific risk is that management is behind on commitments, which could hurt credibility. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-08. DLTR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 27 analysts currently covering DLTR (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for DLTR in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $123.61. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Staples (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Advances: Achieve EPS of $6.70 to $7.10 in 2026
Analysts see earnings upside, supporting EPS growth objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-08. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $123.61
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $123.61.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Advances: Achieve EPS of $6.70 to $7.10 in 2026
Earnings upgrade suggests potential for EPS growth.
Lawsuit could impact brand reputation and employee morale.
Partnership with DoorDash enhances delivery services and customer reach.
Raising guidance indicates strong performance and growth potential.
Advances: Achieve EPS of $6.70 to $7.10 in 2026
Higher profit and revenue align with EPS growth target.
Tariff pressure could impact costs and margins.
Advances: Comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%
Encouraging initiatives may drive sales growth.
