DLTR
Dollar TreeNASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, DLTR has a composite score of 7.5 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects high confidence at 80.3, with strengths in macro factors (15.5) and valuation (59.0), while momentum is weak at -4.2. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the current assessment may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.25
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.00 → $1.00 (-0.0% / 30d). 9 raised, 5 cut, 23 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 38.1% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning — often a turnaround setup.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
12 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-01-30DLTR — officer changeimpact 0.44
- 2026-03-23DLTR — credit agreementimpact 0.35
- 2026-03-23DLTR — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balan…impact 0.28
- 2025-06-20DLTR — officer changeimpact 0.24
- 2025-11-17DLTR — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation of a Registrantimpact 0.20
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 40%; 252d 37%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −34%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 0.99 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 38/100, drawdown 33/100, beta 99/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 7.2% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
59 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DLTR Dollar Tree | +7.5 | fair | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-03-16)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-03-16)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-231mo agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Credit Agreement On March 19, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc., a Virginia corporation (the “Company”), entered into a credit agreement (the “Term Loan Credit Agreement”), with Bank of America, N.A., as agent, and the banks, financial institutions and other institutional lenders from time to time party thereto, providing for a $500 million term loan credit facility (the “Term Loan Facility”). The Term Loan Facility matures on March 19, 2029. Loans…
capital allocationneutralscore 23 - 2026-03-161mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Today, March 16, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. issued a press release reporting its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter financial results and announcing that it will hold a publicly available telephone conference call to discuss these results. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by this reference. The information contained in items 2.02 and 7.01, including that incorporated by reference, is being f…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 19 - 2026-03-231mo agoItem 1.02DLTR — M&A activity — Termination of the Existing Credit Agreement In connection with entry into th…
Termination of the Existing Credit Agreement In connection with entry into the Term Loan Credit Agreement as described in
mna activitynegativescore 18 - 2026-03-231mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in
capital allocationnegativescore 18 - 2026-01-303mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. In a Current Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company with the SEC on September 9, 2025, the Company reported that Richard McNeely intends to retire in April 2026 and that Brent Beebe has been named as Mr. McNeely’s successor to assume the Chief Merchandising Officer role in April 2026. The Company is filing this Form 8-K/A (Amendment No. 1) to repo…
executive changeneutralscore 6
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.