Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Duke Energy (DUK)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$130.08+0.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.17 → 7.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DUK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
5% to 7% adjusted EPS growth through 2030 | A primary condition in Duke Energy's published investment case. The stated target is 5% to 7% annual adjusted EPS growth. | Under Pressure | adjusted EPS growth falls below 5% annually through 2030 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regulated utility with a capital-investment-led growth plan, rather than a high-growth business. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact: management’s earnings-growth goal is on track, but execution remains a watch point.
DUK is assessed as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and valuation expectations marked as justified. The evidence does not point to a large valuation cushion or to unusually high expectations already embedded in the shares.
Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted earnings guidance and its goal of 5% to 7% annual adjusted earnings growth through 2030. The five-year capital plan is underway but remains a watch item, while recent results are neutral overall despite an earnings beat in August. Near-term miss risk is rated low, though peer misses and a past deep miss make guidance execution worth watching.
The multi-year case depends on DUK delivering its earnings-growth plan while carrying out its large capital program and maintaining affordable customer rates. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; lower interest rates or continued strength among utility peers would be supportive sector signals.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on steady execution of the earnings and investment plans, with guidance and sector conditions as important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The company is reaffirming its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and long-term adjusted EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030 off the 2025 midpoint of $6.30, with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.”
Maintain affordable energy rates below national average and inflation | The company keeps energy rates affordable for customers. | Intact | energy rates rise above inflation or national average | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We continue to find new ways to deliver affordable energy for our customers, keeping our rates below the national average and rate changes below inflation.”” “As we build the critical infrastructure our customers and communities need, we’re ensuring our investments support economic growth and create long-term value while providing reliable energy at the lowest possible cost.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
$103 billion five-year capital investment plan | It has a $103 billion five-year capital plan to modernize infrastructure. | Intact | capital plan execution stalls or spending falls well below $103 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document News Release Media Contact: Gillian Moore 24-Hour: 800.559.3853 Analyst Contact: Abby Motsinger Office: 704.382.7624 February 10, 2026 Duke Energy reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results ▪ 2025 reported and adjusted EPS of $6.31, closing the year above the guidance midpoint ▪ $103 billion five-year capital plan drives 9.6% earnings base growth through 2030 ▪ Company extends long-term adjusted EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% though 2030, with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 CHARLOTTE, N.C.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Manage capital structure with convertible notes and refinancing | A supporting condition in Duke Energy's published investment case. The stated target is maintain debt issuance and refinancing as planned. | Intact | capital structure management fails or liquidity weakens | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.17 → $7.17 · observed estimates
$35.04B → $35.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.17 | $35,039,607,416 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.17 | $35,280,178,900 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.17 | $35,280,178,900 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.17 | $35,280,061,250 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.17 | $35,280,061,250 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.17 | $35,280,061,250 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.17 | $35,090,536,087 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.17 | $35,090,536,087 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.17 | $35,090,536,087 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.17 | $35,280,061,250 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.17 | $35,280,061,250 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.17 | $35,090,536,087 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.17 | $35,280,061,250 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.17 | $35,280,061,250 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.17 | $35,079,649,853 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.17 | $35,271,043,990 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.17 | $35,271,043,990 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.17 | $35,271,043,990 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.17 | $35,079,649,853 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.17 | $35,079,649,853 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.17 | $35,079,649,853 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.17 | $35,079,649,853 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.17 | $35,079,649,853 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.17 | $35,079,649,853 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.17 | $35,079,649,853 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.17 | $35,079,649,853 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.17 | $35,079,649,853 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.17 | $35,147,389,854 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.17 | $35,155,426,753 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.17 | $35,155,426,753 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.17 | $35,155,426,753 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.17 | $35,155,426,753 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.17 | $35,155,426,753 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.17 | $35,155,426,753 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.17 | $35,155,426,753 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.17 | $35,155,426,753 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.17 | $35,155,393,420 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.17 | $35,154,214,753 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.17 | $35,142,388,873 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.17 | $35,150,122,207 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.17 | $35,150,122,207 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.17 | $35,150,122,207 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.17 | $35,150,122,207 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.17 | $35,150,122,207 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.17 | $35,148,847,128 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.17 | $35,150,180,255 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.17 | $35,155,143,927 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.16 | $35,167,486,855 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.16 | $35,167,486,855 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.16 | $35,167,486,855 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.16 | $35,167,486,855 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.17 | $35,160,112,677 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.17 | $35,160,112,677 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.17 | $35,160,112,677 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.17 | $35,160,112,677 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.17 | $35,160,112,677 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.17 | $35,160,112,677 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.17 | $35,160,112,677 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.17 | $35,160,112,677 | 14 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.