Duke Energy (DUK)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-07-08
$128.24+1.80%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track DUK free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-07-08
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Track DUK free→Duke Energy plans to grow earnings 5% to 7% yearly through 2030. It has a $103 billion five-year capital plan to modernize infrastructure. The company keeps energy rates affordable for customers. Federal grants support its growth and capital spending.
Regulatory challenges may limit rate hikes and slow growth. Rising costs could pressure energy prices. Capital plan execution risks remain amid mixed management progress.
The price is about 3% above our fair value near $124. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth. Our fair value is 10% below the Street median, reflecting some valuation caution.
Breaks if: adjusted EPS growth falls below 5% annually through 2030
Continue delivering long-term adjusted EPS growth at a rate of 5% to 7% through 2030, targeting the top half of the range beginning in 2028.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and long-term adjusted EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030. Reported EPS grew from $1.76 in 2025-Q1 to $1.97 in 2026-Q1, and guidance midpoint rose from $6.30 in 2025 to $6.675 in 2026. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated target.
Breaks if: energy rates rise above inflation or national average
Focus on delivering affordable energy by keeping rates below the national average and rate changes below inflation.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management emphasizes maintaining affordable energy rates below national averages and inflation. Financials show revenue growth from $7.7B in 2025-Q4 to $9.0B in 2026-Q1, with operating income increasing from $2.1B to $2.7B, indicating ongoing operational scale but no direct rate figures; trajectory shows persistent focus with limited direct rate data.
Breaks if: capital plan execution stalls or spending falls well below $103 billion
Execute the largest regulated capital plan in the industry totaling $103 billion over five years to drive earnings base growth and infrastructure modernization.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The $103 billion five-year capital plan was announced in 2025-Q3 and reiterated in 2025-Q4, with expected 9.6% earnings base growth through 2030. While specific capital spending figures are not detailed in the financials, management emphasizes this plan as a key growth driver, indicating ongoing execution.
Breaks if: capital structure management fails or liquidity weakens
Manage capital structure through issuance of convertible senior notes and refinancing to optimize debt maturity profile and support growth.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management issued $1.3 billion of 3.000% convertible senior notes due 2029 to repay maturing debt and for general corporate purposes. This issuance reflects active capital structure management supporting liquidity and growth financing.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“The company is reaffirming its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and long-term adjusted EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030.”
“Company extends long-term adjusted EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% though 2030, with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.”
“The company is reaffirming its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.17 to $6.42 and long-term adjusted EPS growth rate of 5 - 7% through 2029 off the 2025 midpoint of $6.30.”
“Building for the future all while pursuing solutions to keep rates as low as possible.”
“The cost of energy has always been and will remain a key focus for our company. We continue to find new ways to deliver affordable energy for our customers.”
“$103 billion five-year capital plan drives 9.6% earnings base growth through 2030.”
“With the largest regulated capital plan in the industry, a balance sheet prepared for growth, and contracted demand from AI and advanced manufacturing.”
“Duke Energy prices upsized offering of $1.3 billion of 3.000% convertible senior notes due 2029.”