eBay Inc. (EBAY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$103.41-2.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EBAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EBAY — director transition
Dated 2026-03-24
Director — Brian H. Sharples: The Board of Directors appointed Brian H. Sharples as a new director.
Why it matters: EPS guidance reflects management's outlook on profitability and growth. It will show if eBay is on track to enhance shareholder value.
Watch forQ2 EPS guidance is over $1.14. This shows strong earnings potential.
Also watch forQ2 EPS guidance is below $1.09. This signals possible earnings pressure.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a potential slowdown. This could affect eBay's growth story.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the sector median in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the sector median in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: A good integration can help eBay in the C2C and recommerce markets.
Supportive ifLook for good news on Depop's integration and results in six months.
Worry ifBad news or delays in Depop's integration may show possible problems.
Why it matters: Closing the Depop deal could enhance eBay's reach with younger consumers and boost growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by the end of Q3 2026. All regulatory approvals are secured.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed past Q3 2026. It may fail to get necessary approvals.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $350 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,998 loss on $10,000 · 20.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin may show costs are rising or there are inefficiencies.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin falls below 21.6% in future quarters.
Less concerning ifGAAP operating margin remains at or above 21.6%.
Why it matters: The proposal may change eBay's plans. This could affect how much shareholders earn.
Watch foreBay's Board accepts or talks about the GameStop proposal.
Also watch foreBay's Board says no to the proposal. They do not want to discuss it further.
Why it matters: Improving gross margins can lead to better profitability. This is key for eBay's financial health.
Supportive ifThe next earnings report shows a gross margin increase of more than 2%.
Worry ifGross margin declines or stays flat in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean better cost management and more profit.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 19.8% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 19.8% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Improving EPS growth shows eBay is managing costs and driving profits. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifEPS growth reported above 10% in the next earnings release.
Worry ifEPS growth reported below 5% in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: More advertising revenue shows eBay is good at making money from its platform.
Supportive ifAdvertising revenue rises a lot, going over $600 million in Q3.
Worry ifAdvertising revenue drops or stays under $570 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Weak net income growth may show trouble in keeping profits and investor trust.
Worry ifNet income growth falls below 2% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifNet income growth is 2% or higher year-over-year.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance may show profit challenges. This can change how investors feel.
Worry ifEPS guidance for Q2 2026 is below $1.09.
Less concerning ifEPS guidance for Q2 2026 is at or above $1.14.
Why it matters: Slow growth in ad revenue may mean less user engagement on the platform.
Worry ifAdvertising revenue growth falls below 25% year over year.
Less concerning ifAdvertising revenue growth remains at or above 25% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this growth rate shows strong momentum. It shows confidence in eBay's plan.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth guidance is confirmed at 10% or higher year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth guidance is revised down to below 8% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Lower revenue guidance means less demand. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $3.07 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $3.12 billion.
Why it matters: A drop in GMV growth would signal potential issues in eBay's marketplace performance.
Worry ifQ3 GMV growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 GMV growth meets or exceeds 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Less share repurchases might show a change in how money is spent.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q3 fall below $310 million.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases in Q3 meet or exceed $310 million.