eBay Inc. (EBAY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$123.35-1.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EBAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 54.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EBAY — workforce reduction
Dated 2026-10-22
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On October 20, 2026, the Company announced the Plan, which includes a reduction of the Company’s current global workforce by approximately 9%. Decisions regarding the elimination of positions are subject to local law and consultation requirements in certain countries, as well as the Company’s business needs. In connection with the Plan, the Company currently estimates that it will incur GAAP pre-tax charges in the range of $130 million to $15…
Why it matters: eBay Live has a multibillion-dollar annual GMV pace. Continued fast growth would support this new sales channel.
Supportive ifeBay reports eBay Live GMV growth above 100% year over year and reports more buyers, sellers, or viewing hours.
Worry ifeBay Live GMV growth falls below 100% year over year, or buyer, seller, and viewing activity declines.
Why it matters: The workforce plan may lower costs, but the company also expects large charges. Later results can show the net effect.
Watch forA filing or earnings report lists charges at or below the disclosed range. It also shows lower operating costs.
Also watch forA filing or earnings report lists charges above the range it disclosed. Or operating costs rise without stated savings.
Why it matters: Q3 GMV grew 16% on an FX-neutral basis. Q4 results will show if that pace lasts.
Watch forQ4 GMV is above $24.1 billion, with FX-neutral growth above 14%.
Also watch forQ4 GMV is below $23.7 billion, with FX-neutral growth below 12%.
Why it matters: First-party ads grew 16% in Q3, slower than Q1's 28% FX-neutral growth. The next report can show if growth steadies.
Watch forFirst-party ad revenue growth is at least 16% year over year on an FX-neutral basis.
Also watch forFirst-party ad revenue growth is below 10% year over year on an FX-neutral basis.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $326 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,734 loss on $10,000 · 17.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: eBay paid $1.4 billion for Depop. Its results can show whether the deal adds to eBay's fashion resale business.
Watch foreBay reports Depop GMV or revenue growth and names a measurable gain in buyers or sellers.
Also watch foreBay reports falling Depop GMV or revenue, or flags weak buyer or seller activity.