eBay Inc. (EBAY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryInternet RetailSnapshot 2026-07-08
$115.25+0.47%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $115.25. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $115 EBAY trades at 21× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median, but our blended $80 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $96–$132. Note: our $80 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($96–$132). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $127 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$96.00 – $132.00 (median $110.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 11% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 4.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $4.69/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $110.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $52.93 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $47.66 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $34.41 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $91.69 | 22.3 | 4.12 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $71.25 | 13.7 | 5.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $70.61 | 19.1 | 3.69 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $113.06 | 22.3 | 5.08 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $51.34 | 2.0 | 25.39 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $313.70 | 61.7 | 5.08 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $28.64 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $88.86 | 17.5 | 5.08 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $123.68 | 22.3 | 5.56 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $141.56 | 22.3 | 6.36 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $60.04 | 19.1 | 3.14 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $138.12 | 22.3 | 6.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $51.68 | 2.0 | 25.56 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $383.22 | 61.7 | 6.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $108.55 | 17.5 | 6.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $189.09 | 22.3 | 8.50 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $53.88 | 19.1 | 2.82 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $124.11 | 22.3 | 5.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $46.44 | 2.0 | 22.97 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $344.37 | 61.7 | 5.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $97.55 | 17.5 | 5.58 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.