eBay Inc. (EBAY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$103.41-2.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EBAY
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $103 the market pays 19× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 19× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $77 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $92–$145. Note: our $77 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($92–$145). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $114 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $125.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $98.21 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $111.21 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $35.07 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$92.00 – $145.00 (median $125.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-08-20
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $62.28 |
| 15.1 |
| 4.12 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $50.75 | 10.4 | 5.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $85.85 | 16.1 | 5.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $62.90 | 15.3 | 4.12 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $21.67 | 0.8 | 26.39 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $106.15 | 25.8 | 4.12 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $28.42 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $77.77 | 18.9 | 4.12 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $84.37 | 15.1 | 5.58 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $106.30 | 15.1 | 7.03 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $88.51 | 16.1 | 5.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $88.36 | 15.3 | 5.79 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $20.72 | 0.8 | 25.24 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $149.11 | 25.8 | 5.79 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $109.25 | 18.9 | 5.79 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $151.81 | 15.1 | 10.04 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $90.33 | 16.1 | 5.61 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $74.14 | 15.3 | 4.86 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $17.39 | 0.8 | 21.18 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $125.13 | 25.8 | 4.86 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $91.67 | 18.9 | 4.86 | Analyst | medium |