Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$126.17+26.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.62 → 14.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ECPG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt issuance to support growth without financial strain | Debt issuance supports growth without hurting financial health. | Intact | credit rating downgrade or debt service issues | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial company with a collections-growth thesis, rather than a clear earnings-quality story today, since the snapshot classifies earnings as loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased to medium and recent earnings performance has been uneven.
The valuation is tagged as justified, with low signs of fragility, but ECPG trades at a premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, so the snapshot suggests expectations may be ahead of what the model supports despite the company’s growth plans.
Near term, management’s raised 2026 collections guidance and on-track portfolio purchases point to continued business growth. EPS delivery is less certain: guidance rose to $13.00-$14.00, while recent quarterly results were mixed and included refinancing costs; the company has also had consecutive earnings misses. The main near-term risk is a guidance cut that would damage credibility.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on collections growth continuing and management delivering against its 2026 goals. A reversal of recently raised guidance would weaken the case. The rate backdrop and earnings momentum among major financial companies are additional swing factors.
ECPG’s long-term thesis remains intact, supported by collections growth and raised guidance, but its peer valuation premium and uneven earnings make execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company raised its 2026 EPS guidance to $13 per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $12.00 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $5.57 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS = $13.00. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20265.57 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Global portfolio purchases of $1.4B-$1.5B in 2026 | A primary condition in Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $1.4B to $1.5B in portfolio purchases. | Intact | portfolio purchases fall below $1.3 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase global collections to $2.8 billion in 2026 | Encore Capital grows revenue about 10% yearly, aiming for $2.8 billion collections in 2026. | Intact | collections fall below $2.5 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We now anticipate global portfolio purchases to be in a range between $1.50 billion and $1.55 billion, and global collections to be in a range between $2.90 billion and $2.95 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of 12-14%.” “Additionally, we now expect our EPS in 2026 to be in a range between $15.50 and $16.00 per share, an increase of over 40% compared to 2025.” Revenue was $544.541 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.98 → $14.74 · observed estimates
$1.89B → $1.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.98 | $1,894,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.98 | $1,894,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $14.11 | $1,894,851,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.11 | $1,894,851,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $14.11 | $1,894,851,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.98 | $1,894,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.98 | $1,894,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.11 | $1,894,851,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.98 | $1,894,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.11 | $1,894,851,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.98 | $1,894,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.98 | $1,894,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.98 | $1,894,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.11 | $1,894,851,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $14.57 | $1,920,222,300 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.57 | $1,923,621,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.57 | $1,923,621,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.57 | $1,923,621,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $14.57 | $1,923,621,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.57 | $1,920,222,300 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.57 | $1,920,222,300 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.57 | $1,920,222,300 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.57 | $1,920,222,300 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.57 | $1,920,222,300 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.57 | $1,920,222,300 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.62 | $1,936,352,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.74 | $1,937,652,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.