Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$97.30+0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ECPG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ECPG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to Item 2.02, and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the…
Why it matters: The company issues these notes to support its capital plan. This can help its finances.
Supportive ifThey issued senior secured notes. The total was at least $300 million.
Worry ifNo issuance of senior secured notes occurs by the end of the quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for growth and trust from investors.
Supportive ifOperating income rises a lot compared to the last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls or stays the same compared to the last quarter.
Why it matters: His experience may change how the company runs and is governed.
Watch forNew strategic plans or governance changes came after Beck's appointment.
Also watch forThere are no big changes in strategy or governance after Beck was appointed.
Why it matters: Consumer credit trends impact Encore's business. Positive trends can boost growth.
Supportive ifConsumer credit growth exceeds 5% year over year in upcoming reports.
Worry ifConsumer credit growth falls below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows the company is doing well in the market. It shows growth in their buying strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 portfolio purchases were between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion.
Worry ifIn Q3, portfolio purchases were less than $1.4 billion.
Why it matters: The financial sector is showing signs of easing growth. A drop in revenue growth below its median could signal broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below its median of 12% in upcoming reports.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 12% in upcoming reports.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS would back the company's guidance and show strong earnings growth. It shows good cost control and revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS reported at or above $3.00.
Worry ifQ3 EPS reported below $3.00.
Why it matters: Net income increased in Q1 2026. This shows they are making more money.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $86 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income falls below $70 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Encore issued €325 million and $750 million in notes. This aims to improve their finances. We will watch to see if it helps their capital.
Supportive ifA credit rating upgrade or better debt ratios may follow the note issuances.
Worry ifA downgrade in credit rating or worsening debt ratios post-issuance.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would confirm the company's strong growth trend in collections. It shows they are on track to meet their full-year guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 global collections reported at or above $700 million.
Worry ifQ3 global collections were below $700 million.
Why it matters: This offering's success will affect the company's debt and cash flow.
Watch forThe notes offering ended successfully. It had good terms.
Also watch forIf the offering fails or terms are bad, borrowing costs will rise.
Why it matters: Strong portfolio purchases show market strength. This helps the company's core business grow.
Supportive ifQ3 portfolio purchases are more than $400 million.
Worry ifQ3 portfolio purchases are less than $350 million.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below this level could signal issues with profitability. It would raise concerns about the company's financial health.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $2.50.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $2.50.
Why it matters: Redeeming convertible senior notes can change interest costs and financial results. This matters for cash flow.
Watch forQ3 results show lower interest costs from debt redemption.
Also watch forQ3 results show no big change in interest costs after debt redemption.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $312 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,206 loss on $10,000 · 12.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.