Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$126.17+26.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ECPG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ECPG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to Item 2.02, and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the…
Why it matters: U.S. purchases hit a record in Q2, while Europe collections were flat year over year. A shift in either trend matters.
Watch forQ3 U.S. purchases exceed $372 million and Europe collections rise above $164 million.
Also watch forQ3 U.S. purchases fall below $300 million, or Europe collections fall below $150 million.
Why it matters: The refinance cost $30.5 million in Q2. The stated yearly savings can help offset that one-time charge.
Supportive ifThe next results show yearly interest expense savings near $15 million versus the prior debt terms.
Worry ifReported yearly interest savings are below $10 million, or costs on new debt erase the savings.
Why it matters: Q2 EPS included $1.00 per share in refinancing costs. Q3 results will show progress without that cost.
Watch forQ3 diluted EPS is at least $3.50 and management keeps its $13-$14 full-year EPS range.
Also watch forQ3 diluted EPS is below $2.81, or management cuts its full-year EPS range below $13.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $303 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,034 loss on $10,000 · 10.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.