Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-28 · fmp
EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT CORP (EDUC)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.98-6.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.41 → 0.41 EPS · FY ending Feb 28, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EDUC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
free cash flow yield near 11% | The company has positive free cash flow yield of 11%. | Broken | free cash flow yield falls below 11% next year | Free cash flow yield: 1.98% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20261.98 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style business, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management is focused on cost control and expanding its Brand Partner base, but recent financial performance remains weak.
The evidence describes EDUC as cheap versus peers, with valuation tagged as justified and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not specify what assumptions the market has already made, so the pricing picture is incomplete.
Near term, revenue has declined from $7.1 million in fiscal 2026 Q1 to $4.1 million in fiscal 2026 Q3, and losses persist. Management has repeatedly stated a goal of saving more than $1.2 million in general and administrative expenses in fiscal 2027, but the savings have not yet produced clear financial improvement. The next-quarter earnings miss risk is elevated.
The multi-year view hinges on whether cost savings and a conservative purchasing plan can support sales while revenue is under pressure. Active Brand Partners rose from 4,300 to 5,100 over the first two quarters of fiscal 2027, but remain below the cited historical level of 12,300. Near-term guidance cuts would add a meaningful negative; rate cuts or continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers could provide a sector tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, EDUC remains a watch-state, high-risk turnaround thesis: partner growth offers some progress, but weak results and elevated earnings-miss risk leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management guides operating margin near -1.2 million USD next fiscal year, showing efforts to reduce losses. |
| Intact |
| operating margin worsens beyond -1.2 million USD next fiscal year |
Operating margin: -38.41% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: -1.2 USD millions. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Oct 14, 2026-38.409945 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
limit revenue decline to no worse than -36% YoY | A primary condition in EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT CORP's published investment case. The stated target is >= -36% YoY. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds -36% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.41 → $0.41 · observed estimates
$0.12B → $0.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.41 | $120,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.