EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT CORP (EDUC)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.35+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EDUC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -52.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -37.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
EDUC — credit agreement
Dated 2026-03-11
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On March 6, 2026, Educational Development Corporation (the “Company”) executed a Credit Agreement (“Loan Agreement”) with Regent (the “Lender”). The Loan Agreement establishes a revolving promissory note in the principal amount up to $2,000,000 (the “Revolving Loan”). Features of the Credit Agreement include: (i) $2.0 million Revolving Loan with 1 year maturity date of March 6, 2027 (ii) Revolving Loan bears interest at the higher rate of the Prime R…
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would suggest a turnaround in sales performance. This is vital for the company's future.
Supportive ifRevenue growth turns positive compared to $4.76M in Q1 2027.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative or stagnant compared to Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for the company to improve. Recent changes worry us.
Supportive ifOperating income is going up. It is moving away from losses.
Worry ifOperating losses keep happening or get worse. This shows bigger problems in operations.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows stronger financial health and better management. This helps future growth.
Supportive ifOperating income is positive or improves a lot from -$1.38M in Q1 2027.
Worry ifOperating income remains negative or worsens from -$1.38M in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: A bigger loss shows ongoing money issues. This makes recovery more difficult.
Worry ifNet loss reported greater than $(1.4) million for fiscal 2027 first quarter.
Less concerning ifNet loss reported less than or equal to $(1.4) million for fiscal 2027 first quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $378 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,111 loss on $10,000 · 31.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Exceeding savings would show progress in managing costs and improving finances. This is key for recovery.
Supportive ifManagement says they saved more than $1.2 million in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifSavings are less than $1.2 million. This shows poor cost management.
Why it matters: Stable or rising revenue shows a turnaround in sales performance.
Supportive ifIn Q1 2027, revenue is over $4.76 million, showing sales are improving.
Worry ifIn Q1 2027, revenue is below $4.18 million, showing sales are still struggling.
Why it matters: This plan aims to boost sales divisions amid fluctuating revenue. Its success is key for growth.
Supportive ifManagement shares good news from the careful buying plan. It boosts sales teams.
Worry ifSales teams still face challenges, even with the careful buying plan.
Why it matters: A revenue drop below $4.8 million would signal ongoing sales struggles for EDC.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 2027 revenue was below $4.8 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q1 2027 revenue was above $4.8 million.
Why it matters: Increasing Brand Partners to 7,700 would show a recovery in sales.
Supportive ifActive PaperPie Brand Partners reported at 7,700 or more.
Worry ifActive PaperPie Brand Partners were below 5,300.