Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Enova International, Inc. (ENVA)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$174.28-3.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
20.96 → 21.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ENVA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at least $1.15 per share in 2027 | A supporting condition in Enova International, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.15 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.15 per share in FY 2027 | Diluted EPS: $4.06 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.15 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20264.06 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ENVA is a growth-focused financial company with robust earnings quality, though its risk is elevated and management execution has been volatile. The long-term thesis is intact, but recent performance is mixed and the evidence does not establish a low-risk compounder.
The valuation is described as justified, with a durable premium versus peers; the model confidence behind that assessment is low. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of the evidence, while the available data does not show concentrated fragility.
Near-term results show substantial revenue growth, year-over-year growth in originations and adjusted EPS, and a lower net charge-off ratio. Repurchases also increased, but the company recently missed earnings and has a history of consecutive misses, so execution remains a watch item.
The multi-year thesis depends on ENVA sustaining profitable growth while keeping credit performance stable. A guidance reversal after the recent increase would damage credibility, while falling rates could weigh on the financial sector; continued strength from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued growth and disciplined credit performance, with recent earnings misses and management volatility as key risks. The current evidence supports an intact but closely watched long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It is expanding through acquisitions like Grasshopper Bank. |
| Under Pressure |
| acquisition not completed by end of 2026 |
Acquisition withdrawn vs H2 2026 target News confirms withdrawal of bank applications and regulatory filings for the proposed acquisition. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to at least $207 million in Q1 2026 | Profit rises with operating income improving to $207M in Q1 2026. | Intact | operating income falls below $171.9 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $247.212M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $207 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 2026247,212,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $175 million by 2028 | A primary condition in Enova International, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $175 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $175 million in FY 2028 | Revenue: $1.009B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $175 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20261,009,172,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$20.76 → $21.32 · observed estimates
$4.51B → $4.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $20.76 | $4,511,849,514 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $20.68 | $4,487,517,100 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $20.96 | $4,528,907,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $20.68 | $4,487,517,100 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $20.96 | $4,528,907,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,229 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,229 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,229 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $20.59 | $4,537,785,320 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,229 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,229 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,229 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,229 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,229 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,229 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,229 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $21.56 | $4,579,513,231 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $21.69 | $4,547,726,450 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,450 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,450 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,450 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,450 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,450 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,450 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,450 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,450 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,450 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $20.96 | $4,547,733,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $20.96 | $4,547,733,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $20.96 | $4,547,733,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $20.96 | $4,547,733,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $20.96 | $4,547,733,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $20.96 | $4,547,733,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $20.96 | $4,547,733,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $20.96 | $4,547,733,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $20.96 | $4,547,733,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $20.96 | $4,547,726,436 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,769 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,769 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,769 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,769 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,786 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,786 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,786 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,786 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,786 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,786 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,786 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $20.96 | $4,547,059,786 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $21.28 | $4,603,512,883 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $21.32 | $4,615,276,733 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $21.32 | $4,615,276,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $21.32 | $4,615,276,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $21.32 | $4,615,276,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $21.32 | $4,636,395,067 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $21.32 | $4,636,395,067 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $21.32 | $4,636,395,067 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $21.32 | $4,636,395,067 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $21.32 | $4,636,395,067 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.32 | $4,636,395,067 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $21.32 | $4,636,395,067 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $21.32 | $4,636,395,067 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.