Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
EPAM Systems (EPAM)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$137.36-0.59%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.10 → 14.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EPAM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Progress in AI-native transformation continues | A supporting condition in EPAM Systems's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve progress score above 80%. | Improving | Progress score falls below 70% in next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EPAM is a technology services business with a growth-and-profitability thesis, rather than a proven low-risk compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent results and a rise in company quality, but earnings quality remains fragile.
The valuation evidence calls EPAM cheap versus peers, while also tagging expectations as stretched. That suggests peer comparisons are favorable, but the market may still expect meaningful execution; the evidence does not specify the exact assumptions investors have priced in.
Near term, management’s focus on AI-native transformation and profitable growth is on track. Revenue and operating income rose year over year through 2026-Q2, and guidance calls for 2026 revenue growth with operating margin expansion. Risk remains high because earnings surprises have been trending down and the company has a history of a deep miss, though the stated near-term miss risk is low.
The unfavorable scenario is a guidance cut on the next call, which could signal weaker execution. Favorable factors include Fed rate cuts and stabilization among large technology services peers, though these are sector conditions rather than proof of stronger EPAM results. Over the multi-year view, the key question is whether AI-focused work and profitable growth continue to support revenue and margins.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EPAM’s thesis rests on continued execution and margin improvement, with fragile earnings quality and high risk as important constraints. The valuation looks cheap versus peers, but expectations are described as stretched. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in EPAM Systems's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.44 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS guidance falls below $8.44 for FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.97 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8.44 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261.97 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income grows at least 10% annually | EPAM is growing revenue about 7.6% yearly and raised operating income 17.6% in the last year. | Broken | Operating income growth falls below 10% YoY in FY26 | Operating income: $152.222M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026152,222,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Our second quarter results came in better than expected with continued AI-native momentum and ongoing profitability improvement, reflecting solid execution against our multi-year strategy,” said Balazs Fejes, CEO & President, EPAM.” “• For the full year, EPAM now expects its GAAP diluted EPS to be in the range of $8.29 to $8.59, and non-GAAP diluted EPS to now be in the range of $12.98 to $13.28 Newtown, PA, USA, May 7, 2026, EPAM Systems, Inc. (NYSE: EPAM), a leading digital and AI transformation company, today announced results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026.” Operating income was $152.222 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows at or above consensus 6% annually | A primary condition in EPAM Systems's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26 | Revenue: $1.415B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261,414,767,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.20 → $14.05 · observed estimates
$6.06B → $5.85B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $14.20 | $6,058,292,527 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $14.13 | $6,054,635,800 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $14.19 | $6,055,369,633 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.13 | $6,054,635,800 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $14.19 | $6,055,369,633 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $14.13 | $6,054,635,800 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $14.13 | $6,054,635,800 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.19 | $6,055,369,636 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $14.19 | $6,055,369,636 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.13 | $6,054,635,800 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $14.19 | $6,055,369,636 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $14.13 | $6,054,635,800 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $14.18 | $6,051,052,330 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.18 | $6,051,052,330 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $14.18 | $6,048,757,552 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.18 | $6,048,757,552 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.06 | $5,918,853,680 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.18 | $6,048,757,552 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-11 | $14.07 | $5,881,336,000 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.04 | $5,855,190,260 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.18 | $6,048,757,552 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.18 | $6,048,757,552 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.18 | $6,048,757,552 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.18 | $6,048,757,552 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.18 | $6,048,757,552 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.18 | $6,048,757,552 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.18 | $6,048,757,552 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.10 | $5,850,922,825 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.10 | $5,850,922,825 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.10 | $5,850,922,825 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.10 | $5,850,922,825 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.10 | $5,850,922,825 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.10 | $5,850,922,826 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.11 | $5,850,922,826 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.11 | $5,850,922,826 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.11 | $5,850,922,826 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,548 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.11 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.10 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.10 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.10 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.10 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.10 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.10 | $5,851,070,547 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.10 | $5,851,082,919 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.10 | $5,852,060,697 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.10 | $5,852,060,697 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.10 | $5,852,060,697 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.10 | $5,852,062,830 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.10 | $5,852,062,830 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.10 | $5,852,050,458 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.10 | $5,852,050,458 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.08 | $5,845,983,792 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.08 | $5,845,983,792 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.08 | $5,845,983,792 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.08 | $5,845,983,792 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.07 | $5,850,383,569 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.07 | $5,850,383,569 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.07 | $5,850,383,569 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.07 | $5,850,383,569 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.07 | $5,850,383,569 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.05 | $5,847,393,736 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.05 | $5,847,393,736 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.05 | $5,847,393,736 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.05 | $5,847,394,997 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.05 | $5,847,394,997 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.05 | $5,847,802,404 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.05 | $5,847,802,404 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.05 | $5,847,802,404 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.05 | $5,847,802,404 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.05 | $5,847,802,404 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.05 | $5,847,802,404 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.05 | $5,848,419,866 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.05 | $5,848,419,866 | 13 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.