EPAM Systems (EPAM)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$137.36-0.59%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EPAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers
EPAM — officer change
Dated 2026-05-26
The filing details amendments to the company's equity plans, which are routine matters.
Why it matters: EPAM names AI-native work as a key growth plan. Its Q2 release cites AI momentum, but revenue grew 4.5% year over year. More client demand would test the plan.
Supportive ifOn the November 5 call, EPAM reports a rise in AI-related client revenue or names new AI client wins tied to paid work.
Worry ifEPAM reports no rise in AI-related client revenue and cuts its 2026 revenue growth range below 3.2%.
Why it matters: EPAM set Q3 revenue at $1.410 billion to $1.425 billion. A miss would add to this year's lower growth outlook.
Worry ifOn November 5, Q3 revenue is below $1.410 billion, or full-year revenue growth guidance falls below 3.2%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue reaches at least $1.410 billion, and full-year revenue growth guidance stays at 3.2% or higher.
Why it matters: EPAM used $38.8 million of operating cash in the first half, versus cash generated a year earlier. A return to positive cash flow would ease this concern.
Supportive ifThe next results show positive operating cash flow for the second half of 2026.
Worry ifThe next results show negative operating cash flow for the second half of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $517 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,565 loss on $10,000 · 65.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.