EPAM Systems (EPAM)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$117.04-2.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EPAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EPAM — officer change
Dated 2026-05-26
The filing details amendments to the company's equity plans, which are routine matters.
Why it matters: Better AI can help a company compete. It can also support growth.
Supportive ifManagement says AI capabilities have improved a lot. The score is now 66.0.
Worry ifNo change in AI capabilities. The score stays at 66.0 or lower.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong demand. It also shows good execution in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported between $1.400 billion and $1.415 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $1.400 billion.
Why it matters: More cash use may show operational problems. This can affect liquidity.
Worry ifCash used in operations was worse than $38.8 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCash used in operations was better than $38.8 million in Q3.
Why it matters: More buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 exceed $85 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q3 are below $85 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $517 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,565 loss on $10,000 · 65.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for funding growth. It also helps return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is now positive. It has improved a lot from -$36.4 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can recover after the recent earnings miss.
Watch forQ2 earnings are better than expected. This shows signs of recovery.
Also watch forQ2 earnings fall short again. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A lower EPS may show profit problems and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifGAAP diluted EPS for Q3 reported below $2.33.
Less concerning ifGAAP diluted EPS for Q3 meets or exceeds $2.33.
Why it matters: Completing the share repurchase shows confidence in the company's value and supports share price.
Supportive ifThe $300 million share repurchase agreement is now complete.
Worry ifThe share repurchase agreement is not complete. There are also significant delays.
Why it matters: If organic growth drops below this level, it may show weaker demand for services.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth for 2026 was less than 2.0%.
Less concerning ifOrganic revenue growth for 2026 meets or exceeds 2.0%.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for financial health. It shows good management of funds.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q3.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow from operations may show bigger financial problems. This could hurt growth.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations is now positive. This shows better financial health.
Why it matters: This is a key indicator of demand trends for EPAM's services. Lower growth may signal weakening client demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 1.7% year-over-year at the midpoint of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 1.7% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This margin is important for checking profits. A drop may show cost problems.
Worry ifGAAP operating income margin lands below 11.0% for Q3.
Less concerning ifGAAP operating income margin meets or exceeds 11.0% for Q3.
Why it matters: This shows slower growth. It may hurt investor trust in EPAM's AI changes.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $1.400 billion. This means less than 4.0% growth from last year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue exceeds $1.415 billion, confirming strong growth momentum.
Why it matters: Progress in AI is key for EPAM's growth and staying ahead of competitors.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new AI project or partnership. This will make skills better.
Worry ifNo new updates on AI skills in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: This range shows strong profits and good cost control.
Supportive ifGAAP diluted EPS reported within the range of $1.79 to $1.87.
Worry ifGAAP diluted EPS reported below $1.75.