Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Evolution Petroleum Corp. (EPM)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.46-1.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.04 → 0.09 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EPM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Enhance cash flow from operations | The company is working to improve cash flow despite recent declines. | Improving | cash from operations falls below $3.5M in any quarter | Cash from operations: $6.799M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: cash from operations >= $3.5M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 16, 20266,799,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EPM is a small energy royalty business with a multi-year view tied to sector conditions and growth from acquired interests. Its thesis is currently intact, supported by strong recent performance and robust earnings quality, though management execution is neutral and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: EPM is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations measure is modestly positive and the overall priced-in tag is stretched. Model confidence is low, and the evidence points to sector turbulence as the main source of fragility rather than a broader combination of high valuation and weak fundamentals.
Revenue rose from $20.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $24.2 million in 2026-Q2, while operating income moved from a loss to a profit. Management has completed a Permian acquisition and reported new Louisiana operations, but the supplied results do not show how much these additions contributed. Near term, an elevated miss risk and the September earnings miss are concerns, while the maintained quarterly dividend commitment is not proof of future coverage.
The multi-year thesis depends on acquired mineral and royalty interests producing measurable revenue and cash flow, and on management maintaining financial execution. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as COP, EOG, and OXY would support the energy-sector backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EPM has a still-intact business thesis but a demanding execution test: recent results are strong, while acquisition delivery and earnings consistency remain unproven or at risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It plans to maintain a $0.12 per share dividend. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.12 in any quarter |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Evolution also declared its 16 th consecutive $0.12 cash dividend per common share, payable on June 30, 2026, marking its 51 st consecutive quarterly cash dividend payment.” “Management Comments Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented: “Fiscal 2026 was another important year for Evolution as we broadened the portfolio with strategic acquisitions, maintained $0.48 per share in dividends, and increased proved reserves over and above the roughly 2.6 MMBOE we produced during the year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase revenue through Louisiana royalty acquisitions | Evolution Petroleum aims to grow revenue through Louisiana royalty acquisitions. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 1.4% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 14.69% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: grow revenue at least 1.4% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 16, 202614.686375 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.00 → $0.09 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.00 | $83,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.04 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.04 | $83,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.04 | $81,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.04 | $81,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.04 | $81,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.04 | $81,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.04 | $81,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.04 | $81,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.04 | $85,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.09 | $87,103,150 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.