Evolution Petroleum Corp. (EPM)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.68-0.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EPM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers
EPM — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-20
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 18, 2026, Evolution Petroleum Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Roth Capital Partners, LLC, as representative (the “Representative”) of the several underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to sell and issue to the Underwriters an aggregate of 3,700,000 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per sh…
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it may signal a shift from a mature phase to growth. This could positively impact Evolution Petroleum's outlook.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the energy sector rises above 2%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth stays at or below 2%.
Why it matters: The earnings report will give details on financial health and how well they operate.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income is higher than what analysts expected.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a net loss or earnings miss again.
Why it matters: Production from new wells could boost revenue and cash flow starting in fiscal Q4.
Supportive if23 new wells from Louisiana deals begin producing as expected.
Worry ifProduction from the new wells is delayed or does not meet expectations.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA shows that operations still have problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q4 2026 falls below $3 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q4 2026 goes above $4 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $451 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,814 loss on $10,000 · 38.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Acquisitions in Louisiana could boost revenue. This aligns with the company's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe company announces a large Louisiana royalty deal worth over $10M.
Worry ifNo acquisitions are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is financially healthy. It also shows they care about their shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares its quarterly dividend at $0.12 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts the quarterly dividend to less than $0.12 per share.
Why it matters: The company's financial results will show if it can improve its loss-making status. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Watch forQ2 2026 results show a reduction in losses compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forQ2 2026 results show losses increase compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Growth from acquisitions helps increase total revenue. It shows they are executing their plan.
Supportive ifRevenue from Louisiana deals goes up by more than 5% from last quarter.
Worry ifRevenue from Louisiana acquisitions falls or stays the same from last quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means more efficiency and better financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $3.49 million in fiscal Q4 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations stays below $3.49 million in fiscal Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strength even with recent losses.
Watch forThe company maintains the $0.12 per share dividend for fiscal Q4 2026.
Also watch forThe company cuts the $0.12 per share dividend for fiscal Q4 2026.
Why it matters: More production from these assets could greatly increase revenue and cash flow.
Supportive ifProduction from TexMex assets exceeds 100 net BOEPD by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifProduction from TexMex assets remains below 50 net BOEPD by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Doubling production shows the growth potential from the recent acquisition. This fits with management's plan to increase cash flow and diversify earnings.
Supportive ifProduction from the acquired interests exceeds 420 BOE/d by the end of fiscal 2029.
Worry ifProduction from the acquisition remains below 210 BOE/d by the end of fiscal 2029.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals strong cash flow support. If cash flow weakens, it may challenge the sustainability of the dividend.
Worry ifCash flow from operations exceeds $3.5 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations falls below $3.5 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: These acquisitions are likely to increase revenue and cash flow. Their results will show how well management's plan works.
Supportive ifRevenue from Louisiana acquisitions will add a lot to cash flow by fiscal Q4 2026.
Worry ifRevenue from Louisiana acquisitions will not add much by fiscal Q4 2026.