Evolution Petroleum Corp. (EPM)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.46-1.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EPM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
EPM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-15
Occasionally our management discloses net income (loss) and net earnings (loss) per common share excluding selected items as well as Adjusted EBITDA. These measures are presented by our management as supplemental financial measures to allow external users of our financial statements, such as investors, commercial banks, and others, to assess our operating performance as compared to that of other companies in our industry, without regard to financing methods, capital structure, or historical c…
Why it matters: Management reported new activity in Louisiana, but did not show its cash flow contribution. A clear figure would test the growth plan.
Supportive ifA company report gives Louisiana royalty output or cash flow and shows it rising from the prior report.
Worry ifThe next company report still gives no Louisiana output or cash flow, or shows a decline.
Why it matters: The new wells can add cash flow without drilling costs for EPM. This tests whether the deal adds value.
Supportive ifA company update shows Midland royalty production above 210 BOE/day. More completed wells add output.
Worry ifA company update shows Midland royalty production at or below 210 BOE/day after new wells come online.
Why it matters: EPM has kept its $0.12 quarterly dividend. Cash flow from the new royalty assets may help support it.
Watch forEPM keeps the $0.12 quarterly dividend and reports cash flow that covers dividend payments.
Also watch forEPM cuts or pauses its $0.12 quarterly dividend. Or, it reports cash flow below dividend payments.
Why it matters: Fiscal Q4 output rose 3% from Q3, but full-year production barely changed. More output would show fresh wells offsetting declines.
Supportive ifFiscal Q1 average production is above 6,901 BOE/day.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 average production is at or below 6,901 BOE/day.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $451 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,253 loss on $10,000 · 32.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The report can show whether the new Midland assets and Louisiana wells add cash flow. EPM's current value signal is loss-making.
Watch forThe November 10 report shows adjusted net income above zero. It also shows more cash flow from mineral and royalty assets.
Also watch forThe report shows an adjusted net loss and no rise in mineral and royalty cash flow.