Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
EQT Corporation (EQT)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$50.62-3.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.82 → 3.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EQT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital spending within $2.07-$2.21 billion in FY26 | Capital spending is disciplined and production is on track. | Intact | Capital expenditures exceed $2.21 billion or fall below $2.07 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $647.411M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 2070000000-2210000000 USD. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 28, 2026647,411,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an energy-sector, natural-gas investment with a long-term growth angle, supported by a sector tailwind and robust earnings quality. The thesis weakened this week: recent financial performance slipped relative to peers, even as EQT reported earnings beats.
EQT is described as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and valuation evidence at medium confidence. The pricing assessment is marked justified, with low fragility: the concern is a turbulent sector, not a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
In the near term, the latest quarter showed lower sales volume than the prior quarter, while operating costs per unit rose; capital spending was below the low end of guidance. EQT continues to pursue gas supply and demand growth, including a 10-year LNG sales agreement and a pipeline open season, but the multi-year outcome depends on turning those efforts and operational efficiency into sustained results.
A key risk is whether EQT cuts guidance after recently raising it, which could damage management credibility. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strong results and higher guidance from COP, EOG, and OXY would support the energy-sector tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EQT’s long-term thesis has support from cost discipline, demand-building actions, and a favorable sector backdrop, but its recent relative performance has weakened the case. Guidance credibility, production execution, and sector results are the main swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company aims for free cash flow above $3.5 billion in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $3.5 billion in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $435.862M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3500000000 USD. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 28, 2026435,862,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sales volume >= 618 Bcfe in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in EQT Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=618 Bcfe. | Intact | Sales volume falls below 618 Bcfe in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline limited to -5% in FY26 | A supporting condition in EQT Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=-5.3% YoY. | Broken | Revenue declines more than 5.3% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.43 → $3.50 · observed estimates
$9.31B → $10.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.43 | $9,311,630,840 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.26 | $9,436,231,340 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.26 | $9,436,231,340 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.26 | $9,436,231,340 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.01 | $9,432,543,652 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.38 | $9,253,288,600 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.01 | $9,432,543,652 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.38 | $9,253,288,600 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.37 | $9,243,606,790 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.37 | $9,242,706,690 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.37 | $9,242,706,690 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.37 | $9,242,706,690 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.37 | $9,242,706,690 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.01 | $9,442,271,596 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.03 | $9,344,280,741 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.94 | $9,275,729,134 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.94 | $9,275,729,134 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.94 | $9,275,729,134 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.94 | $9,275,729,134 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.92 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.87 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.87 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.87 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.87 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.86 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.86 | $9,275,199,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.85 | $9,258,552,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.85 | $9,258,552,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.85 | $9,258,552,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.85 | $9,259,730,109 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.85 | $9,253,152,385 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.85 | $9,253,152,385 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.85 | $9,253,152,385 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.94 | $9,243,870,032 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.86 | $9,243,870,032 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.86 | $9,212,340,621 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.86 | $9,212,340,621 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.86 | $9,212,340,621 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.87 | $9,215,856,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.87 | $9,215,856,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.87 | $9,215,856,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.87 | $9,215,856,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.87 | $9,215,856,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.87 | $9,215,856,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.81 | $9,157,680,227 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.81 | $9,165,830,227 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.82 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.82 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.82 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.82 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.82 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.82 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.82 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.82 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.79 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.79 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.86 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.86 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.84 | $9,170,252,697 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.67 | $8,972,333,623 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.67 | $8,972,333,623 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.67 | $8,972,333,623 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.67 | $8,972,333,623 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.67 | $8,972,333,623 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.63 | $8,875,075,637 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.63 | $8,875,075,637 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.66 | $8,875,091,290 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.66 | $8,875,091,290 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.66 | $8,875,091,290 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.66 | $8,875,091,290 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.66 | $8,875,091,290 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.56 | $10,368,204,894 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.55 | $10,838,259,194 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.55 | $10,838,259,194 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.57 | $10,838,259,194 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.57 | $10,838,259,194 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.57 | $10,838,259,194 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.49 | $10,838,259,194 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.50 | $10,829,216,591 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.50 | $10,829,216,591 | 8 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 9 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.