EQT
EQT CorporationNYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, EQT has a composite score of 6.9, with a signal label of "mixed" and a medium confidence level of 73.1. The score is influenced by various factors, including a favorable macroeconomic outlook with a score of 4.0, but a low sector score of 2.6 and elevated risk levels. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the current assessments may change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.22
- Slope (norm)-0.61
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.63 → $0.58 (-7.9% / 30d). 5 raised, 14 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
21 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain capital spending guidancecapital allocationmixed44% progress
2/17: “EQT: '2026 maintenance capital spending guidance of $2,070 – $2,210 million.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. EQT has set a capital spending guidance range of $2,070 – $2,210 million for 2026. The financials do not yet provide a clear trajectory on adherence to this guidance, as the latest available data is from 2025-Q4.
- 2.Achieve free cash flow targetcapital allocationmixed44% progress
2/17: “EQT: 'Projecting ~$3.5 billion of free cash flow attributable to EQT in 2026.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. EQT aims for ~$3.5 billion in free cash flow for 2026. The financials for 2025-Q4 show negative cash from operations at -$5.3 billion, indicating a challenging start towards this target. The trajectory is unclear without further data.
- 3.Meet production forecastgrowthbehind14% progress
2/17: “EQT: '2026 production forecast of 2,275 – 2,375 Bcfe.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. EQT has set a production forecast of 2,275 – 2,375 Bcfe for 2026. The financials do not yet provide production data for 2026, making it difficult to assess progress towards this forecast.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 28%; 252d 33%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −18%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 46/100, drawdown 63/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain capital spending guidance
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04EQT aims to adhere to its 2026 maintenance capital spending guidance of $2,070 – $2,210 million.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. EQT has set a capital spending guidance range of $2,070 – $2,210 million for 2026. The financials do not yet provide a clear trajectory on adherence to this guidance, as the latest available data is from 2025-Q4.
44%CEO/CFO:“EQT: '2026 maintenance capital spending guidance of $2,070 – $2,210 million.'”10-KSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q110-K
“EQT: '2026 maintenance capital spending guidance of $2,070 – $2,210 million.'”
- #2
Achieve free cash flow target
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04EQT projects approximately $3.5 billion of free cash flow in 2026 at recent strip pricing.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. EQT aims for ~$3.5 billion in free cash flow for 2026. The financials for 2025-Q4 show negative cash from operations at -$5.3 billion, indicating a challenging start towards this target. The trajectory is unclear without further data.
44%CEO/CFO:“EQT: 'Projecting ~$3.5 billion of free cash flow attributable to EQT in 2026.'”10-KSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q110-K
“EQT: 'Projecting ~$3.5 billion of free cash flow attributable to EQT in 2026.'”
- #3
Meet production forecast
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04EQT plans to meet its 2026 production forecast of 2,275 – 2,375 Bcfe.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. EQT has set a production forecast of 2,275 – 2,375 Bcfe for 2026. The financials do not yet provide production data for 2026, making it difficult to assess progress towards this forecast.
14%CEO/CFO:“EQT: '2026 production forecast of 2,275 – 2,375 Bcfe.'”10-KSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q110-K
“EQT: '2026 production forecast of 2,275 – 2,375 Bcfe.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
52 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EQT EQT Corporation | +6.9 | inexpensive | elevated |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2117d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Today, EQT Corporation ("EQT") issued a news release announcing its first quarter 2026 earnings. A copy of EQT's news release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1, shall be deemed "furnished" and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"),…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 49 - 2026-04-1424d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. EQT Corporation (“EQT”) expects to report a total loss on derivatives of $238 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026. In addition, for the three months ended March 31, 2026, EQT expects to report net cash settlements paid on derivatives as shown below. Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 (Millions) Net cash settlements paid on NYMEX natural gas hedge positions $ (114) Net cash settlements paid on basis and liquids hedge positions (190) N…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 42 - 2026-04-1523d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the Annual Meeting of Shareholders of EQT Corporation (the “Company”) held on April 14, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”), the Company’s shareholders approved an amendment (the “Third Amendment”) to the EQT Corporation 2020 Long-Term Incentive Plan, as amended (the “2020 LTIP”) to (i) increase the number of shares authorized for issuance under the 202…
executive changeneutralscore 33 - 2026-03-241mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 24, 2026, EQT Corporation (“EQT”) issued a news release announcing the early tender results and upsizing of its previously announced tender offer to purchase for cash (the “Tender Offer”) certain of its outstanding 3.900% Senior Notes due 2027, 6.375% Senior Notes due 2029, 4.50% Senior Notes due 2029, 5.00% Senior Notes due 2029, 4.75% Senior Notes due 2031, 3.625% Senior Notes due 2031, 7.000% Senior Notes due 2030 and 7.500% Senior Notes due 2030 (collectively, the “…
capital allocationneutralscore 18 - 2026-03-101mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 10, 2026, EQT Corporation (“EQT”) issued a news release announcing its commencement of a tender offer to purchase for cash certain of its outstanding 3.900% Senior Notes due 2027, 6.375% Senior Note due 2029, 4.50% Senior Notes due 2029, 5.00% Senior Notes due 2029, 4.75% Senior Notes due 2031, 3.625% Senior Notes due 2031, 7.000% Senior Notes due 2030 and 7.500% Senior Notes due 2030 for an aggregate purchase price, excluding accrued and unpaid interest, of up to $1.15…
capital allocationneutralscore 13
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.