EQT Corporation (EQT)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$55.17-0.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EQT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
EQT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Today, EQT Corporation ("EQT") issued a news release announcing its second quarter 2026 earnings. A copy of EQT's news release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1, shall be deemed "furnished" and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"),…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how strong the company is and its market position.
Watch forEarnings report shows a significant profit increase year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a significant loss or decline year over year.
Why it matters: Staying within the $510 to $580 million range shows EQT's discipline in spending. This is critical for maintaining cash flow.
Supportive ifCapital spending for Q3 2026 is between $510 and $580 million.
Worry ifCapital spending for Q3 2026 is more than $580 million.
Why it matters: Lower spending shows better cost control. It can also boost free cash flow.
Supportive ifIn 2026, capital spending will be less than $2,040 million.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $2,190 million.
Why it matters: Production levels impact revenue and how investors feel. Missing targets may show bigger problems.
Worry ifQ2 production meets or is better than what management expected.
Less concerning ifQ2 production is below the forecast by more than 10%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $311 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,809 loss on $10,000 · 28.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for EQT's financial health. A drop below this level may raise concerns.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $1.8 billion for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported above $2 billion for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: High operating costs may show inefficiencies. This can hurt profits and cash flow.
Worry ifOperating costs per Mcfe are above $1.23.
Less concerning ifOperating costs per Mcfe are below $1.09.
Why it matters: Higher debt levels may show financial trouble. Stable debt shows good management of finances.
Worry ifTotal debt reported above $5.7 billion in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal debt decreases to below $5.5 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing the Tender Offer could help EQT's balance sheet. It may also help how investors feel.
Watch forEQT finishes the Tender Offer and cuts total debt a lot.
Also watch forEQT fails to complete the Tender Offer or does not reduce total debt.
Why it matters: Pricing impacts revenue and profit. It shows the market conditions for natural gas.
Supportive ifAverage realized pricing exceeds $5.00 per Mcf in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAverage realized pricing drops below $4.50 per Mcf in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: An upgrade would reflect improved financial health and lower borrowing costs for EQT.
Supportive ifFitch upgrades EQT's credit rating from BBB.
Worry ifFitch downgrades EQT's credit rating below BBB.
Why it matters: More spending might show a change in management's money plans. This affects cash flow and debt.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, total capital spending is less than $580 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q3 2026, total capital spending is more than $580 million.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow shows improved efficiency and a healthy balance sheet. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifFree cash flow attributable to EQT in Q3 2026 exceeds $330 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow attributable to EQT in Q3 2026 falls below $330 million.
Why it matters: Completion of this project is key for EQT's growth and ability to meet rising demand in the region.
Supportive ifMVP Southgate project is confirmed to be done by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDelays or setbacks in the MVP Southgate project completion timeline.
Why it matters: This range shows if EQT keeps up production. It checks management's plans and efficiency.
Watch forTotal sales volume reported in Q3 2026 lands within the 570 to 620 Bcfe range.
Also watch forTotal sales volume reported in Q3 2026 falls below 570 Bcfe.