Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp (ESP)
AMEXIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.90-8.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.97 → 3.97 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ESP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend yield near 3% | A supporting condition in Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% dividend yield. | Intact | dividend yield falls below 2% or dividend is cut | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ESP is a small-cap growth business with a dividend, rather than a clear turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact: revenue and operating income have grown, but confidence is medium and the risk level is elevated.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the market’s assumptions are not clear enough for a firm conclusion.
Recent results show revenue rising from $9.1 million in 2026-Q1 to $13.5 million in Q4, while operating income rose from $2.1 million to $3.5 million. Management has sustained growth as a priority, and regular dividends continued, with a special dividend added in Q4. Near term, a weakening jobs trend and a change in the certifying accountant are risks to monitor.
The favorable case depends partly on Industrials bellwethers ETN, VRT, and BE continuing to report strong results and raise guidance. The unfavorable case includes those companies weakening or continued softness in jobs data increasing recession concerns for cyclical businesses. The evidence does not quantify how strongly these factors would affect ESP.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ESP’s long-term thesis rests on sustained revenue and profitability growth, alongside a supportive sector backdrop. Its peer-relative valuation looks cheap, but elevated risks and low valuation-model confidence temper that picture. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow yield is positive, supporting financial health. |
| Improving |
| free cash flow yield falls below 1% |
Free cash flow yield: 1.78% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20261.78 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain profit margins supporting PE near 16 | Profit margins stay stable with a PE near 16, well below peers at 40. | Improving | profit margins decline causing PE to rise above 20 without growth | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 25% in FY27 | A primary condition in Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >=25% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 15% YoY in FY27 | Revenue growth: 40.39% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=25% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 23, 202640.387856 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.83 → $3.97 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.83 | $54,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.97 | $55,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.