Essex Property Trust (ESS)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$278.61-0.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ESS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Essex Property Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and supplemental information announcing the Company’s financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. The Company has posted a copy of the press release and supplemental information on the Company’s website at www.essex.com . A copy of the press release and supplemental information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated b…
Why it matters: If the sector shows renewed revenue growth, it could lift Essex's performance and outlook.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to above 10% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth continues to slow below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Market conditions can change how investors feel and how stocks perform.
Watch forManagement says market conditions are good during the Q2 earnings call.
Also watch forManagement says market conditions are bad during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: Strong same-property revenue growth shows good demand and pricing power in the market.
Supportive ifSame-property revenue growth is over 5% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifSame-property revenue growth is below 2% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Another earnings beat would show a trend of strong financial performance.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows results better than analyst expectations by at least 5%.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report shows results below what analysts expected.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $215 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $958 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management's guidance for Q3 Core FFO shows how well the company is doing. It shows if the company can keep growing and control costs.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 Core FFO per diluted share guidance set at $3.99 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 2026 Core FFO per diluted share guidance set below $3.93.
Why it matters: Same-property revenue growth shows how well the company runs its current properties. This is important for making money in the long run.
Supportive ifSame-property revenue growth is over 2.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSame-property revenue growth falls below 2.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Active stock buybacks can show that management believes in the company's worth. This can help keep share prices steady.
Supportive ifThe company buys back more than $50 million in shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThere are no stock buybacks or less buyback activity in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Same-property NOI growth shows how well the company works. It shows how much money they make. This affects the company's financial health.
Watch forSame-property NOI growth exceeds 2.8% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forSame-property NOI growth falls below 2.3% in Q3 2026.