Essex Property Trust (ESS)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$271.52+2.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ESS — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 27, 2026, Essex Property Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and supplemental information announcing the Company’s financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. The Company has posted a copy of the press release and supplemental information on the Company’s website at www.essex.com . A copy of the press release and supplemental information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by…
Why it matters: Portfolio revenue rose 1.0% from Q2, but expenses rose 6.7%. NOI fell 1.3% in the quarter.
Watch forQ4 same-property NOI rises from Q3, reversing the 1.3% drop.
Also watch forQ4 same-property NOI falls again from the prior quarter.
Why it matters: Essex raised its 2026 NOI growth midpoint to 3.0%. A result below the 2.8% low end would miss its new range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 same-property NOI growth is below 2.8%, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 same-property NOI growth is at or above 3.0%, the guided midpoint.
Why it matters: Seattle revenue grew 1.3% in Q3, while expenses rose 5.3%. That left NOI down 0.4% year over year.
Worry ifSeattle same-property expenses again rise faster than revenue. Seattle NOI falls from a year earlier.
Less concerning ifSeattle same-property NOI grows from a year earlier.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$62 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $196 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,237 loss on $10,000 · 12.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.