Essex Property Trust (ESS)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-07-07
$298.09+0.03%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $298.09. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $298 ESS trades at 16× p/ffo, below its 16× p/ffo peer median, but our blended $234 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $272–$320. Note: our $234 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($272–$320). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $305 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$272.00 – $320.00 (median $291.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-06-26
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $291.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $293.36 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $244.41 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $130.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $108.04 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $97.73 | 16.2 | 6.04 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $316.21 | 21.5 | 14.70 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $305.20 | 16.2 | 18.86 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $234.86 | 7.9 | 29.59 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $80.83 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $281.00 | 47.1 | 5.97 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $95.34 | 16.2 | 5.89 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $99.53 | 16.2 | 6.15 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $385.22 | 21.5 | 17.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $350.63 | 16.2 | 21.67 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $277.93 | 7.9 | 35.02 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $408.29 | 47.1 | 8.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $100.74 | 16.2 | 6.23 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $439.40 | 21.5 | 20.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $384.63 | 16.2 | 23.77 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $322.68 | 7.9 | 40.66 | guidance | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $474.02 | 47.1 | 10.07 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.