Essex Property Trust (ESS)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$278.61-0.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESS
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $279 ESS trades at 17× p/ffo — 1.3× the 13× p/ffo peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $237 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts target $277–$352. Note: our $237 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($277–$352). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $308 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $297.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $343.06 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $427.11 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $132.64 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$277.00 – $352.00 (median $297.00) · 21 analysts · as of 2026-08-18
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $128.28 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $242.89 | 15.6 | 15.60 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $216.38 | 13.2 | 16.40 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $114.79 | 3.8 | 29.97 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $90.11 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $397.47 | 46.4 | 8.57 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $115.88 | 13.2 | 8.78 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $305.23 | 15.6 | 19.60 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $206.45 | 13.2 | 15.64 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $137.26 | 3.8 | 35.84 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $194.84 | 46.4 | 4.20 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $355.44 | 15.6 | 22.82 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $200.08 | 13.2 | 15.16 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $159.35 | 3.8 | 41.61 | guidance | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $121.13 | 46.4 | 2.61 | Analyst | high |