Eaton Corporation (ETN)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-07
$395.68-4.29%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $395.68. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $396 ETN trades at 33× p/e, below its 40× p/e peer median, but our blended $342 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $428–$500. Note: our $342 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($428–$500). Not investment advice.
$428.00 – $500.00 (median $480.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 143% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 9.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $11.30/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $480.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $300.46 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $278.36 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $55.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $117.87 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $447.27 | 40.3 | 11.11 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $294.13 | 23.4 | 14.82 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $411.02 | 39.5 | 10.39 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $447.27 | 40.3 | 11.11 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $310.70 | 4.2 | 73.28 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $397.93 | 35.8 | 11.11 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $76.22 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $360.14 | 32.4 | 11.11 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $497.74 | 40.3 | 12.36 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $756.54 | 40.3 | 18.78 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $625.11 | 39.5 | 15.81 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $792.25 | 40.3 | 19.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $484.27 | 4.2 | 114.22 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $704.87 | 35.8 | 19.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $637.92 | 32.4 | 19.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1074.00 | 40.3 | 26.67 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $826.71 | 39.5 | 20.90 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1047.75 | 40.3 | 26.01 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $640.45 | 4.2 | 151.06 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $932.18 | 35.8 | 26.01 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $843.65 | 32.4 | 26.01 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.