Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Eaton Corporation (ETN)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$327.02-7.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.16 → 16.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ETN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase EPS by 6% in 2026 | A primary condition in Eaton Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% EPS growth. | Under Pressure | EPS growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Diluted EPS growth: 6.95% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% EPS growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20266.949807 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ETN is a large industrial growth business with a thesis that depends on continued execution, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
The valuation evidence is mixed: ETN screens cheap versus peers, while its premium-versus-peer measure is high and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in assessment says expectations are broadly justified, with low fragility, but the expectations-gap estimate has low confidence.
Near term, organic growth is strong: second-quarter 2026 organic sales grew 14% year over year, above guidance, and full-year growth guidance was raised. Margins remain on track against the full-year goal, but EPS was lower than a year earlier and full-year EPS guidance was cut; the broader sector backdrop is a headwind.
Over the next few quarters, ETN’s credibility depends on sustaining its raised guidance, especially after the reduction in EPS expectations. Sector momentum also matters: continued strong results and guidance from bellwethers could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or weaker guidance could remove that support.
For the 1-3 year view, the growth thesis remains intact, but weaker EPS progress, sector headwinds, and an expensive overall valuation leave execution as the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Eaton Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is 9-11% YoY growth. |
| Under Pressure |
| Organic revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Segment margins were a record 25.3%, 30 basis points above both the high end of the guidance range and the third quarter of 2025, driven by higher sales and improved performance amid continued capacity investments to support growth.” Revenue was $8.947 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Segment margins of 24.6-25.0% in 2026 | A primary condition in Eaton Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is 24.6-25.0% segment margin. | Under Pressure | Segment margins remain below 23% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Segment margins were a record 25.3%, 30 basis points above both the high end of the guidance range and the third quarter of 2025, driven by higher sales and improved performance amid continued capacity investments to support growth.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Successful integration of mobility merger and Boyd Thermal acquisition | A supporting condition in Eaton Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Integration completed with positive contribution by end 2026. | Intact | Merger or acquisition integration fails or delays beyond 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.78 → $16.36 · observed estimates
$35.63B → $37.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $15.78 | $35,628,454,820 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $15.78 | $35,628,454,820 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $15.78 | $35,628,454,820 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $15.78 | $35,628,454,820 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $15.78 | $35,628,454,820 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $15.78 | $35,628,454,820 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $15.73 | $35,552,187,485 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $15.78 | $35,628,454,820 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $15.73 | $35,552,187,485 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $15.83 | $35,824,603,280 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $15.90 | $35,916,259,389 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $15.83 | $35,824,603,280 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $15.95 | $36,268,442,250 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $15.93 | $36,088,542,957 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $15.93 | $36,088,542,957 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.02 | $36,521,104,810 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.02 | $36,521,104,810 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $15.93 | $36,088,542,957 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $16.02 | $36,521,104,810 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-12 | $16.02 | $36,521,104,810 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-13 | $15.93 | $36,088,542,957 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $15.93 | $36,088,542,957 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $15.93 | $36,088,542,957 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $15.93 | $36,088,542,957 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $15.93 | $36,088,542,957 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $15.93 | $36,088,542,957 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $15.93 | $36,088,542,957 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.02 | $36,493,023,076 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.02 | $36,493,023,076 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $15.99 | $36,344,974,358 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $15.99 | $36,344,974,358 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $15.99 | $36,344,974,358 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $15.99 | $36,344,974,358 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $15.99 | $36,344,974,358 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $15.99 | $36,344,974,358 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $15.99 | $36,344,974,358 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $16.02 | $36,384,331,705 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $16.09 | $36,424,701,248 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $16.09 | $36,424,701,248 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $16.09 | $36,424,701,248 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $16.09 | $36,424,701,248 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $16.09 | $36,424,701,248 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $16.09 | $36,424,701,248 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $16.09 | $36,424,701,248 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $16.09 | $36,424,701,248 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $16.09 | $36,432,796,486 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $16.09 | $36,432,796,486 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $16.09 | $36,432,796,486 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $16.09 | $36,432,796,486 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $16.09 | $36,432,796,486 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $16.09 | $36,432,796,486 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $16.09 | $36,432,796,486 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $16.09 | $36,432,796,486 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $16.10 | $36,467,987,555 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $16.05 | $36,484,439,507 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $16.05 | $36,484,439,507 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $16.05 | $36,484,439,507 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $16.05 | $36,484,439,507 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $16.11 | $36,530,957,412 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $16.11 | $36,545,186,850 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.11 | $36,545,186,850 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.16 | $36,586,672,462 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.16 | $36,586,672,462 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.16 | $36,586,672,462 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.16 | $36,601,933,332 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.19 | $36,629,846,375 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.19 | $36,629,846,375 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.19 | $36,653,479,948 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.19 | $36,653,479,948 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.19 | $36,653,479,948 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.19 | $36,653,479,948 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.19 | $36,653,479,948 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.22 | $36,679,892,483 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.24 | $36,703,622,918 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.25 | $36,707,696,831 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.25 | $36,707,696,831 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.26 | $36,707,696,831 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.26 | $36,707,696,831 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.26 | $36,707,696,831 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.28 | $36,756,491,498 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.36 | $37,274,285,144 | 16 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.