Eaton Corporation (ETN)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$410.85+3.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ETN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ETN — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement…
Dated 2026-03-10
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On March 6, 2026, Eaton Corp closed its sale of 3.850% notes due 2028 in the principal amount of $1,500.0 million (the “ 2028 U.S. Notes ”); 3.950% notes due 2029 in the principal amount of $1,500.0 million (the “ 2029 U.S. Notes ”); 4.200% notes due 2031 in the principal amount of $1,500.0 million (the “ 2031 U.S. Notes ”); 4.500% notes due 2033 in the principal amount of $1,000.0 million (the “ 20…
Why it matters: The merger is a key part of Eaton's strategy to focus on high-growth sectors. Closing will signal progress in their 2030 growth plan.
Supportive ifThe merger closes in Q1 2027 as planned, with Eaton shareholders owning at least 50.1% of the new company.
Worry ifThe merger may be delayed or not happen. This could be due to rules or unhappy shareholders.
Why it matters: The spin-off will help Eaton focus on faster-growing Electrical and Aerospace sectors. This will improve margins.
Supportive ifThe spin-off transaction closes in Q1 2027 as planned.
Worry ifThe spin-off is now delayed past Q1 2027. This is due to regulatory or shareholder issues.
Why it matters: Reaching this margin is key for Eaton's profit goals in 2026.
Supportive ifSegment margins were between 24.6-25.0%. This shows they managed costs well.
Worry ifSegment margins are below 24.6%. This suggests they face ongoing cost pressures.
Why it matters: The FOMC's decisions can affect market conditions and investor sentiment. This could impact Eaton's stock performance.
Watch forPositive market reaction to the FOMC decision on July 29, 2026, leading to a rise in Eaton's stock price.
Also watch forNegative market reaction to the FOMC decision on July 29, 2026, leading to a decline in Eaton's stock price.
Why it matters: This report will show how Eaton is doing financially. It will also show growth plans.
Watch forEarnings report shows EPS growth in line with guidance of 6% for 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows EPS growth below 6%, raising concerns about performance.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth could show a good change in the industrial sector.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported above 8% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: M&A activity can change growth plans and money health. Ending deals may show problems.
Worry ifAnnouncement of new M&A deals or partnerships that enhance growth.
Less concerning ifNo new M&A activity or more deal terminations.
Why it matters: Confirming growth guidance shows strong demand in Eaton's sectors. This means ongoing momentum.
Supportive ifEaton confirms organic growth guidance of 9-11% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifEaton lowers its growth guidance to below 9%. This suggests weak demand may be coming.
Why it matters: Higher earnings per share show strong performance and profit.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share exceed $2.87.
Worry ifEarnings per share fall below $2.77 in Q3.
Why it matters: Details on the spin-off will clarify Eaton's future focus and growth strategy.
Watch forEaton gives clear details on the spin-off. They explain the expected benefits.
Also watch forEaton delays or gives unclear details on the spin-off. This raises concerns.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS growth is key to meeting the 6% annual target for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS growth reported at or above 1% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 EPS growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Eaton can maintain its strong growth momentum. It reflects demand strength across its markets.
Supportive ifQ3 organic growth reported at 14% or higher year over year.
Worry ifQ3 organic growth reported below 13.5%.
Why it matters: This margin range shows Eaton can control costs while growing. It affects overall profits.
Supportive ifSegment margins reported at 24.1% or higher for Q3.
Worry ifSegment margins reported below 24.1% for Q3.
Why it matters: The separation is important for Eaton's plan. It helps focus on better Electrical and Aerospace areas.
Supportive ifThe Mobility separation will finish before the end of Q1 2027.
Worry ifA delay in the Mobility separation past Q1 2027.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Eaton is growing earnings despite challenges. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported at $3.50 or higher for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $3.46 for Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $432 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,833 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.