Etsy (ETSY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$91.53-4.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ETSY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ETSY — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-28
CFO — Charles (Lanny) Baker: The departure of the Chief Financial Officer is a significant management change that typically signals negative sentiment, even with a transition period.
Why it matters: Etsy said its CFO would leave on October 28. A named successor and clear handoff would ease doubts about finance leadership.
Watch forEtsy names a CFO successor and gives a clear date for the leadership handoff.
Also watch forEtsy reports no named successor or a delayed handoff in its next public update.
Why it matters: Q3 Etsy marketplace GMS grew 8.8% year over year. A similar or faster pace would extend the recent growth run.
Supportive ifThe next reported quarter shows Etsy marketplace GMS growth at or above 8.8% year over year.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows Etsy marketplace GMS growth below 8.8% year over year.
Why it matters: Active buyers grew for the first time in two years. More growth would show that Etsy is bringing shoppers back.
Supportive ifEtsy reports more active buyers than a year ago in its next quarterly update.
Worry ifEtsy reports active buyers at or below the year-ago level in its next quarterly update.
Why it matters: Etsy linked its new buyer tools to about two points of annual GMS growth. Less lift would weaken that case.
Supportive ifEtsy says personalization added about two or more points to annual GMS growth in its next update.
Worry ifEtsy says personalization added less than two points, or no longer adds to annual GMS growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $467 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,106 loss on $10,000 · 31.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.