Etsy (ETSY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$76.51-6.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ETSY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ETSY — restructuring
Dated 2026-08-05
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. Restructuring Plan On August 3, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of Etsy (the “Board”), acting pursuant to a delegation of authority from the Board, approved a restructuring plan intended to better align the organization with Etsy's long-term strategic priorities, including by simplifying Etsy’s structure to improve coordination and speed of decision-making (the “Restructuring Plan”). The Restructuring Plan will reduce the…
Why it matters: More buyer engagement means Etsy's plans to connect buyers and sellers are working. This leads to more sales.
Supportive ifBuyer engagement metrics show a consistent increase over the next two quarters.
Worry ifBuyer engagement metrics fall or stay the same.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows Etsy is making strong cash flow. This helps with growth and needs.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $90M in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $90M in Q2.
Why it matters: Closing the sale will help Etsy focus on its main marketplace. This will make operations run better.
Supportive ifThe sale of Depop closes on or before July 30, 2026.
Worry ifThe sale of Depop is delayed beyond July 30, 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Etsy's growth strategies are working after the Depop sale.
Watch forEarnings report shows GMS growth above 5% year-over-year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows GMS growth below 0% year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $520 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,170 loss on $10,000 · 41.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: News about the $2 billion buyback may show how much management trusts the stock.
Supportive ifManagement says they have finished a big part of the $2 billion buyback.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays about the buyback program.
Why it matters: Better operating income will show that Etsy can manage costs well.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 2026 shows an increase compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income in Q2 2026 is lower than in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The sale of Depop allows Etsy to focus on its core marketplace. This could improve profitability and growth metrics.
Supportive ifQ3 results show higher operating income. Adjusted EBITDA margins are also better than Q2.
Worry ifQ3 results show no change in operating income or margins.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below the median in Consumer Discretionary, it could hurt Etsy. This shows a possible change in consumer spending.
Worry ifSector revenue growth was above median levels.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth was below median levels.
Why it matters: Changes in the number of active buyers will show if Etsy's growth plans work.
Watch forActive buyers go up each quarter in Q2 2026.
Also watch forActive buyers go down each quarter in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More GMS per active buyer means better customer spending and engagement.
Supportive ifGMS per active buyer shows a year-over-year increase in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGMS per active buyer declines year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins mean more profit and efficiency. These are important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes above 30% in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops or stays below 29% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher engagement metrics show that Etsy's plans to connect buyers and sellers are working.
Supportive ifEngagement metrics show more active buyers or shopping missions compared to last year.
Worry ifEngagement metrics drop or stay the same compared to past quarters.
Why it matters: This growth would mean Etsy's revenue plans are working and could boost profits.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth was over 7% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth was below 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Etsy's work with AI companies could help attract more buyers and increase sales.
Watch forEtsy gets more visitors. People engage more with AI shopping experiences.
Also watch forNo clear rise in visitors or engagement from AI partnerships.
Why it matters: If Etsy grows faster, it shows the marketplace is doing well. This proves management's plans are working.
Supportive ifQ3 GMS growth reported above 7.5% YoY.
Worry ifQ3 GMS growth reported below 5% YoY.
Why it matters: Starting share buybacks would show management believes in Etsy's value and finances. This could help shareholders.
Supportive ifEtsy announces the start of its $2 billion share repurchase program.
Worry ifNo share repurchases initiated within the next six months.
Why it matters: Gaining active buyers is crucial for Etsy's long-term growth. It shows that the marketplace is attracting and retaining customers.
Supportive ifActive buyers have grown for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifActive buyers decline or remain flat for two consecutive quarters.