Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Exelon (EXC)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.53+0.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.04 → 3.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EXC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Invest $41.7 billion in capital expenditures over next four years | Exelon plans to invest $41.7 billion over four years to improve infrastructure. | Intact | CAPEX plan falls materially below $41.7 billion over four years | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regulated utility investment with a relatively low-risk profile, not a high-growth story. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent earnings improved momentum, but performance still trails the industry cohort.
EXC is valued cheaply versus peers, and the valuation signal is tagged as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting market expectations are not especially demanding, though the evidence does not show a strong discount based on unusually high execution risk.
Near term, third-quarter adjusted earnings per share edged up year over year, and management narrowed 2026 guidance while reaffirming it. Reliability rankings improved, but execution evidence for the capital plan is limited, and recent financial performance remains weak relative to peers; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether EXC delivers its narrowed 2026 guidance and continues gradual earnings progress. The multi-year view also depends on grid investment execution, while lower interest rates or continued strength among utility peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, EXC’s long-term thesis combines steady service delivery and a large grid plan with modest earnings progress and weaker performance than its industry cohort. Guidance delivery and capital-plan execution are the main company-specific swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Exelon's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% CAGR EPS growth. |
| Intact |
| EPS CAGR falls below 5% over 2025-2029 |
Diluted EPS growth: -18.6% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% CAGR EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026-18.604651 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve EPS in range $2.81-$2.91 for 2026 | A primary condition in Exelon's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.81 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.81 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.70 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.81 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20260.7 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage regulatory risks including Maryland FERC complaint | A supporting condition in Exelon's published investment case. The stated target is No material adverse regulatory rulings impacting earnings. | Under Pressure | Material negative regulatory ruling reduces earnings guidance | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.04 → $3.03 · observed estimates
$26.21B → $26.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.04 | $26,209,020,180 | 20 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.04 | $26,209,020,180 | 20 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.04 | $26,221,768,450 | 21 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.04 | $26,221,768,450 | 21 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.04 | $26,030,965,650 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.04 | $26,221,768,450 | 20 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.04 | $26,033,154,677 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.04 | $26,223,830,950 | 20 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.04 | $26,033,154,677 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.04 | $26,241,456,390 | 20 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.04 | $26,241,456,390 | 20 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.04 | $26,241,456,390 | 20 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.04 | $26,241,456,390 | 20 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.04 | $26,241,456,390 | 20 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.03 | $26,198,950,140 | 20 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.03 | $26,198,950,140 | 20 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.04 | $26,051,955,337 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.04 | $26,131,546,799 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.04 | $26,169,292,269 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,310 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,957 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.04 | $26,180,735,957 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.04 | $26,188,713,957 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.04 | $26,188,713,957 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.04 | $26,188,713,957 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.04 | $26,188,713,957 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.04 | $26,178,828,793 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.04 | $26,179,444,178 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.04 | $26,166,868,308 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.03 | $26,156,718,675 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.04 | $26,153,158,573 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.04 | $26,153,158,573 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.04 | $26,153,158,573 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.04 | $26,153,158,573 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.03 | $26,158,075,818 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.03 | $26,159,718,675 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.03 | $26,159,718,675 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.03 | $26,159,504,390 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.03 | $26,159,504,390 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.03 | $26,159,504,390 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.03 | $26,156,452,517 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.03 | $26,176,751,784 | 12 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 17 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.