Exelon (EXC)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.64-2.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Exelon plans to invest $41.7 billion over four years to improve infrastructure. It aims to earn $2.81 to $2.91 per share in 2026. The company has a low price-to-earnings ratio of 17.3, cheaper than peers. Earnings grew 2.2% above estimates in Q1 2026.
Regulatory challenges in Maryland could hurt future earnings. Capital spending may pressure cash flow. EPS growth near the top of 5-7% CAGR is uncertain with mixed management signals.
The market prices in about 4% revenue growth and values the stock slightly below our $48 fair value. Our view aligns with consensus but sees risks from regulatory and capital allocation challenges.
Breaks if: CAPEX plan falls materially below $41.7 billion over four years
Breaks if: EPS CAGR falls below 5% over 2025-2029
Exelon aims for EPS growth near the top end of a 5-7% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2029.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.81 in FY26
Maintain and deliver on the full year 2026 adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings guidance range of $2.81 to $2.91 per share.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management affirmed the 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance range of $2.81 to $2.91 per share consistently from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Adjusted operating earnings per share were $0.91 in 2026-Q1 and $0.43 in 2026-Q2, supporting the full-year guidance. The trajectory is delivering as management has maintained guidance and reported results in line with expectations.
“Affirming full year 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share”
“Affirming full year 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share”
“Introducing full year 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share”
“Affirming full year 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share”
Breaks if: Material negative regulatory ruling reduces earnings guidance
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a utility company facing a turbulent sector backdrop. The current thesis is cautious, given weak recent financial performance and mixed management priorities.
The valuation indicates that the market views EXC as cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that the market is not fully accounting for the weak execution quality and sector challenges.
Fundamentals may remain under pressure in the near term due to weak recent performance. However, management's reaffirmation of earnings guidance and capital expenditure plans could provide some stability.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and the performance of sector peers. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rates could impact the utility sector positively or negatively.
Overall, the next 1-3 years will be critical for EXC as it navigates sector challenges and execution risks. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Exelon affirmed its 2026 EPS guidance of $2.81-$2.91. It also plans $41.7 billion in capital spending over four years. However, the company missed earnings expectations in its latest report. Regulatory challenges may impact future earnings guidance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.