Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Expand Energy (EXE)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$85.34-2.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.42 → 8.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EXE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Invest $2.85 billion to support production growth | Expand Energy plans to invest $2.85 billion for production growth. | Intact | Capex falls below $2.0 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $838M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Capex >= $2.85 billion in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 2026838,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EXE is a cyclical energy business with robust earnings quality and moderate risk. Its multi-year view has weakened this week as recent financial performance slipped relative to its industry, while management execution remains mixed.
The evidence describes EXE as cheap versus peers, with market expectations close to the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is justified, and valuation has risen recently, but the evidence does not show that a large expectations gap is driving the thesis.
Near term, the latest earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance are constructive, but the recent decline in relative financial performance and the history of a deep miss remain risks. In 2026-Q3, EXE operated 11 rigs and produced 7.54 Bcfe/d, while full-year capital guidance rose to about $3 billion; repurchases and marketing results show delivery, though several priorities remain mixed.
The near-term thesis would weaken if EXE cuts guidance at its next call. Over the multi-year view, execution on capital allocation, operating plans, and marketing growth matters, while energy-sector bellwethers’ earnings and guidance could either sustain or reduce the sector tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, EXE has supportive sector conditions and evidence of operating delivery, but the thesis is weaker than before because relative performance has slipped and management execution is mixed. The key tests are guidance, capital discipline, and whether the broader energy backdrop remains supportive. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Debt reduction of at least $1 billion supports the balance sheet. |
| Under Pressure |
| Debt reduction less than $500 million in next 12 months |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Generate free cash flow above $218 million | Free cash flow is expected above $218 million. | Intact | FCF falls below $150 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $339M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $218 million in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 2026339,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operate 11 to 12 rigs in 2026 | A primary condition in Expand Energy's published investment case. The stated target is 11 to 12 rigs in 2026. | Under Pressure | Rig count falls below 10 rigs in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Capital and Operating Outlook For the full year 2026, Expand Energy expects to run 11 – 12 rigs and has updated its capital investment guidance to approximately $3 billion.” “Average daily production is expected to be approximately 7.45 – 7.55 Bcfe/d.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.04 → $8.22 · observed estimates
$13.77B → $12.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.04 | $13,769,526,807 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.36 | $10,354,827,780 | 23 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.36 | $10,354,827,780 | 23 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.36 | $10,354,827,780 | 23 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.92 | $13,768,285,074 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.42 | $10,339,754,780 | 23 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.50 | $13,596,743,941 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.67 | $13,197,612,423 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.67 | $13,197,612,423 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.99 | $10,270,140,480 | 23 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.67 | $13,197,612,423 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.99 | $10,270,140,480 | 23 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.67 | $13,197,612,423 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.13 | $10,185,047,760 | 23 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.75 | $13,205,812,423 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.19 | $10,181,714,420 | 23 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.19 | $10,181,714,420 | 23 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.19 | $10,181,714,420 | 23 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $8.75 | $13,205,812,423 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.03 | $10,354,589,110 | 20 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.75 | $13,205,812,423 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.75 | $13,205,812,423 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.75 | $13,205,812,423 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.75 | $13,205,812,423 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.75 | $13,205,812,423 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.75 | $13,205,812,423 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.75 | $13,205,812,423 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.69 | $13,147,299,024 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.61 | $13,121,594,713 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.57 | $13,121,594,713 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.57 | $13,121,594,713 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.57 | $13,121,594,713 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.55 | $12,965,808,999 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.55 | $12,965,808,999 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.55 | $12,965,808,999 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.55 | $12,965,808,999 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.67 | $12,961,124,372 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.67 | $12,961,124,372 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.67 | $12,961,124,372 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.67 | $12,961,124,372 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.67 | $12,961,124,372 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.67 | $12,961,124,372 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.67 | $12,961,124,372 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.54 | $12,813,554,361 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.54 | $12,813,554,361 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.54 | $12,813,554,361 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.54 | $12,813,554,361 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.54 | $12,813,554,361 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.54 | $12,794,165,494 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.63 | $12,794,165,494 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.62 | $12,777,832,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.62 | $12,777,832,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.62 | $12,777,832,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.62 | $12,777,832,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.57 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.57 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.57 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.57 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.57 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.57 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.45 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.45 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.47 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.47 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.47 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.47 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.47 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.47 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.47 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.47 | $12,732,032,161 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.49 | $12,732,098,827 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.41 | $12,530,221,077 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.42 | $12,530,221,077 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.42 | $12,530,221,077 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.37 | $12,540,316,448 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.31 | $12,524,628,948 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.30 | $12,524,628,948 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.30 | $12,524,628,948 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.28 | $12,524,628,948 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.28 | $12,524,628,948 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.28 | $12,524,628,948 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.39 | $12,524,628,948 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.39 | $12,524,628,948 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.35 | $12,526,628,948 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.17 | $12,447,610,198 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.17 | $12,447,610,198 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.19 | $12,447,610,198 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.19 | $12,447,610,198 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.21 | $12,447,610,198 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.07 | $12,425,922,698 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.10 | $12,442,803,421 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.10 | $12,442,803,421 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.10 | $12,442,803,421 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.10 | $12,442,803,421 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.10 | $12,442,803,421 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.10 | $12,442,803,421 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.09 | $12,502,509,304 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.13 | $12,556,685,774 | 9 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.22 | $12,652,431,654 | 10 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.22 | $12,691,314,007 | 10 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.22 | $12,691,314,007 | 10 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.22 | $12,691,314,007 | 10 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.25 | $12,754,990,833 | 11 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.22 | $12,755,108,480 | 10 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.